innacurate pass/Hail Mary Pass average scatter distance?

Quadrasonic · Post by **Quadrasonic** » Tue Jun 19, 2007 2:12 am

I am contemplating the value of the HMP/Diving Catch combo. I am no good with statistics and percentages of chance, so I rolled the 3 scatter dice 100x last night to see what would happen. Here is what I got:

On target: 6
1 square away from target: 45
2 squares away from target: 22
3 squares away from target: 27

As these are from 100 total attempts, they should translate to approximate percentages. About half the time the ball should land within 1 square of the reciever.

Maybe someone better with statistics can tell me if my dice were hot or cold.

bouncergriim · Post by **bouncergriim** » Tue Jun 19, 2007 2:18 am

0.20% 0.59% 1.17% 1.37% 1.17% 0.59% 0.20%
0.59% 1.17% 2.34% 2.34% 2.34% 1.17% 0.59%
1.17% 2.34% 5.27% 5.27% 5.27% 2.34% 1.17%
1.37% 2.34% 5.27% 4.69% 5.27% 2.34% 1.37%
1.17% 2.34% 5.27% 5.27% 5.27% 2.34% 1.17%
0.59% 1.17% 2.34% 2.34% 2.34% 1.17% 0.59%
0.20% 0.59% 1.17% 1.37% 1.17% 0.59% 0.20%

These are the probabilites for each individual square.

To sum up 4.69 % land in original intended square, 42.16 it will end up in an adjacent square (so 46.88% it will land were a D.Catcher could snag it)

2 squares is 20.31 %
and 3 squares is 32.81 %

this ignores the scatter after the ball lands.

All in all HMP and D.Catch combo should work 29.297% of the time with AG3 catcher.

bouncergriim · Post by **bouncergriim** » Tue Jun 19, 2007 2:26 am

statistically speaking it is more likely that a Kroxigor (or other AG1 loner) would pick up a ball (w/o using a RR!) than a HMP/Diving Catch play will work.

Quadrasonic · Post by **Quadrasonic** » Tue Jun 19, 2007 2:33 am

Very helpful! Thanks.

Looks like a person would best only try it if he has 2 or more other players near the reciever to have tackle zones on the ball when it scatters too far.

Of course, with the change to Diving Catch, using more than one player with that skill in the same general vicinity could be a great option as well.

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:10 am

Does anyone have experience with making Diving Catch work? I've seen it taken several times, but I've only ever had it used on me once, with a Halfling HMP/Diving Catch combo. She tried it twice and it worked once, but it got her scored on the other time. In the new rules, it looks like it would combine well with Kick-Off Return, but I couldn't see anyone actually taking it. Does anyone get mileage out of it? If so, how?

bouncergriim · Post by **bouncergriim** » Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:18 am

It is good for stunties, if you have to pass (heaven forbid) then an inaccurate pass is not the end of the world, because you may (30% of the time or so with catch and diving catch skill) actually catch it.

However the most use I have gotten out of it is on kickoffs, on multiple occasions I have had a skink be in just the right place to get the ball because of D. Catch.

Also it helped me on a crowd throw in. The ball when out from my players square and only went 2 squares thrown (rare occurance I know), but it allowed me to score during my opponents turn and end his chances to stop me from scoring and him from getting the ball. He had blitzed my player into the ball to get it out of the three TZs it was resting in.

Buggrit · Post by **Buggrit** » Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:58 am

I had a weird passing experience the other day when the ball was thrown innaccurately and for the first time ever still managed to land on one of my players who then caught it!!

Snew · Post by **Snew** » Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:34 pm

You didn't add +1 for accurate pass did you?

Buggrit · Post by **Buggrit** » Fri Jun 22, 2007 5:49 pm

No I didn't she caught the ball on a 4+ (think I rolled a 5) it was very impressive.

darren woodward · Post by **darren woodward** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:17 am

Buggrit wrote:I had a weird passing experience the other day when the ball was thrown innaccurately and for the first time ever still managed to land on one of my players who then caught it!!

Me Too!!

I Blitzed the ball-carrier in T8(2) & knocked the ball loose. Picked it up with another player and tossed a long-bomb to an open catcher. It was
in-accurate but bounced into his arms & he walked n for the TD

I had to check the RB first as i was convinced it was a TO. d