Bonus for Kicking Team in Overtime

Fist of Gales · Post by **Fist of Gales** » Tue Sep 22, 2009 10:03 pm

Our League is considering adding a bonus for the team that kicks off in Overtime.

We have one overtime for regular season games and unlimited overtimes in playoff matches. The regular season overtime comes up in probably 30% of our matches.

We have decided to keep track of the win % for the receiving team this season as it seems that the receiving team ends up winning a vast amount of these overtime matches. We are only about 1/2 of the way through the season, but so far the receiver is winning about 90% of the time.

What I would love to hear from TBB members are some ideas for what this bonus could be.

Our local 3rd edition league givs the kicking team a bonus reroll for overtime and this is the way we are leaning right now.

Thanks in advance,

TL

Jural · Post by **Jural** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:33 am

Personally, I think if you don't win the game in regulation, you deserve a coin flip to decide your fate!

Also, I would say in our league it's nowhere near 90%, I'd guess closer to 60-70% without looking at the data. So there is some skill in there.

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 5:25 am

Interesting. My league has consistently fewer offensive scores than defensive scores, but I think some of that is that the better teams tend to set up more often on defense and less often on offense.

Geoff Watson · Post by **Geoff Watson** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 7:19 am

In the league I'm running, the kick-off result in Overtime is automatically 10/Blitz, which seems to balance things out.
Haven't had enough overtime games to really test it, though.

Geoff.

Jural · Post by **Jural** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 7:58 am

mattgslater wrote:Interesting. My league has consistently fewer offensive scores than defensive scores, but I think some of that is that the better teams tend to set up more often on defense and less often on offense.

In OT? I don't get it. Hitting first and setting the pace for a drive has to be better than playing defense, right? Assuming you are going for the win.

Joemanji · Post by **Joemanji** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 10:04 am

Obviously receiving is a massive bonus in OT, but then you also need to factor in attrition. A fragile team could easily be down to 5-7 players by then and in no position to dictate the drive.

SillySod · Post by **SillySod** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 2:27 pm

Easy, heap the pressure on.

Say that "in the event of a tie after overtime the team that kicked in overtime automatically wins the game". This instead of it going to a coin flip.

Jural · Post by **Jural** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 11:29 pm

Joemanji wrote:Obviously receiving is a massive bonus in OT, but then you also need to factor in attrition. A fragile team could easily be down to 5-7 players by then and in no position to dictate the drive.

Sure, but receiving is still better for that team than kicking, right?

daloonieshaman · Post by **daloonieshaman** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 11:41 pm

we have played (and it worked out great)
Offensive sets up first
Defense sets up and then kicks

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Wed Sep 23, 2009 11:49 pm

SillySod wrote:Easy, heap the pressure on.

Say that "in the event of a tie after overtime the team that kicked in overtime automatically wins the game". This instead of it going to a coin flip.

Me likey.

Or: "add all players in Reserves (just players, after rolling KOs) together to determine overtime TV. Lower OTTV may kick or receive."

Jural · Post by **Jural** » Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:01 am

There is one easy solution- Give each team the ball once and give them a chance to score. Keep playing until one team fails to score. Each drive is 8 turns or lasts until the score is made, then it goes back to turn 1.

Sure, the team who is on offense first suffers less from attrition, but it is more fair, I'd say.

still.... I like the rules exactly as they are. And I'm curious how some leagues would actually have the result that the receiving team is, on average, at a disadvantage! Matt, can you explain?

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Thu Sep 24, 2009 3:20 am

Edited for context next AM...

Jural wrote:
mattgslater wrote:Interesting. My league has consistently fewer offensive scores than defensive scores, but I think some of that is that the better teams tend to set up more often on defense and less often on offense.
In OT? I don't get it. Hitting first and setting the pace for a drive has to be better than playing defense, right? Assuming you are going for the win.

You're right: I was factoring in an inapplicable dynamic

. The receiving team has a small net advantage on turn 1 drives, including overtime. On one hand, the receiving team gets to set up in response to the kicking team, and then gets to go first. On the other hand, the ball starts out deep in receiving territory, making early turnovers off pickup failures, fumbled passes and sacks caused by bad lies or great blitzing a big deal, especially when one or both teams is down men (as is often the case in overtime). Advantage: receiving team. 9:1 advantage? No. Not even 2:1. But real and identifiable? Yes.

Extrapolated on a drive-by-drive basis out to a league full of whole games, however, it's different. Every time you score, you kick. Good teams score more than bad teams, and in fact good defenses turn over bad or even okay offenses more often than they give up TDs. Ergo, good kicking teams tend to score more when there is a significant disparity in coaching skills (especially agility teams that can run up the score: even a well-played bash team can average 2+ TDs and give up an average of 0.5 or less, yielding a lot more kicking drives than receiving, but they won't be throwing off the numbers like a dominant elf team that scores 4-6 points every match and also gives up only about 0.5).

Our league here has three easily-defined tiers, but I've seen leagues that knew each other so well every pairing of coaches had its own set of dynamics. That kind of league will probably see a higher proportion or receiving scores.

Wanchor · Post by **Wanchor** » Thu Sep 24, 2009 3:47 am

Matt makes some good points and I have no suggestions other than to play more than one match in a series when it concerns important playoff games.

mattgslater · Post by **mattgslater** » Thu Sep 24, 2009 3:30 pm

I could see if I had an Undead team and was down my Thrower/Handler Ghoul, but not my Kicker, and wasn't facing Wood Elves or a really healthy bash team I'd rather kick in overtime. Ditto if I were facing Dwarfs and had taken out both Runners, as it's easier to kick deep and isolate an MA5 ball-carrier if he has no handoff options than it is to get an offensive drive through an all-Block AV9 team with nothing but GS access. But yeah, OT is sometimes a foregone conclusion because the stronger team receives.

I actually like that. Usually by the time OT starts, one team will have stuff and one team will not. So either the "up" team receives and it is what it is, or the "down" team receives, and they have an extra bonus of going first to see if they can make it happen. If the coin-toss were factored out, this would favor the overdog.

Jural · Post by **Jural** » Thu Sep 24, 2009 7:42 pm

@Matt- I think you've nailed it on the head- getting to choose to receive or kick in OT is a slight advantage, maybe as much as a 60-40 given equal skilled coaches over the range of potential outcomes.

Personally, I'm OK with that- One coach gets a better chance of winning due to luck- but it only happened because his opponent didn't take care of business in regulation.