NTBB2.0/2014

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Jas1279
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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by Jas1279 »

@Matt

Really? I thought

->rush catchers forward
->long-ish 2+ pass to a free catcher upfield <possibly already defended by a cage to keep him unharassed from the previous turn>
->rush forward to score, maybe needing the handoff at this point

Was fairly standard for high elves?

dark elves = run the ball
High elves = pass the ball generally no?

That is unless we're seeing fit to kill their passing game to give them help with that unimportant 2+ pickup in their back field....

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by MattDakka »

Jas1279 wrote:@Matt

Really? I thought

->rush catchers forward
Lack of context. While it can be a good idea when rushed to score (either on turn 6-7 or 14-15) generally speaking sending the catchers forward too early mean they either will be blitzed and injured (AV 7) or marked.
Jas1279 wrote: ->long-ish 2+ pass to a free catcher upfield <possibly already defended by a cage to keep him unharassed from the previous turn>
A cage means that 5 elves will be in a small zone of the pitch, thus easily swarmed by the opponent players, also, elves are generally outnumbered and can't afford to cage, they instead need to screen the ball carrier with a loose (i.e. 2-squares from elf to elf) net of tackle zones.
Jas1279 wrote:->rush forward to score, maybe needing the handoff at this point
Hand offs are very simple actions for elves, yet an unnecessary risk if you simply run with the ball without handing it off.

Jas1279 wrote:dark elves = run the ball
High elves = pass the ball generally no?
Do you play Dark Elves at high TV?
It's true that they generally play a running game, but at high TV they are more outnumbered than at low TV, thus requiring passing more often than usual, because they are the slowest elves (although it remains an emergency option).
High Elves are faster, so they can score without passing most of times (at low and high TV, with the odd pass when required).

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Jas1279
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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by Jas1279 »

MattDakka wrote:Lack of context. While it can be a good idea when rushed to score (either on turn 6-7 or 14-15)
Not really context specific, I find high elves have a strong offence and it is usually to their advantage to either score quickly when receiving the kick and/or generally get the ball secure and up the field to the scoring line past the opposition asap where they may then elect to stall if ther have sufficient players and space to keep things tightly locked down. no?
MattDakka wrote: A cage means that 5 elves will be in a small zone of the pitch,
yes i use the term 'cage' loosely here -intent is generally get a group of defenders up the pitch in a defensive formation (cage or loose cage) with a catcher in the middle likely to remain unmarked / unharassed to recieve a 2+ pass next turn

Key advantage being the ball can be kept safely down field out of range of the opposition and if the enemy's line is particularly porus you can get 3-4 potential receivers up the pitch for a choice of scoring with whoever is marked least effectively.

This gives you options the 2+ (safe) pass to push receivers up and past the enemy on both fringes forcing them to split their backfield defence.

MattDakka wrote:Do you play Dark Elves at high TV?
I play against them (Mr AndyDavo mostly), they tend to run more and pass less... and throw the opposition out the side of the pitch :)
MattDakka wrote: High Elves are faster, so they can score without passing most of times (at low and high TV, with the odd pass when required).
Yes high elves are faster but usually take 2 turns minimum to score. Pushing the ball up field/ committing to a single line of attack usually involves negotiating a tighter opposition defence as the defending team will focus on the ball carrier and where they are on the pitch no?. High elves can currently 'safely' pass and catch on re-rolled 2+'s most of the time to create a ton of options on offence, splitting the defence all over in the process, all whilst keeeping the ball safely out of range of the enemy (and avoid a punchup in the process). Is *that* not a key strength high elves are designed to exploit? It certainly has been in my experience and it seems a very very high price to give up that key racial strength for a lowly 'utility' skill to be mainly used at non-critcal points of the game, out of range of the opposition, to maybe save a 50k reroll? This certainly seems a very big dent in the race's capability.

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by plasmoid »

Hi Jas,
well - I'm certainly perplexed to see read your description.
I can assure you, that the intent was not to nerf High Elfs, but to help them in early Development (not late Development).
And I wanted to improve their signature player, because High Elfs are about the Thrower (and Linemen) compared to the Elf team which is about the Catchers and the Blitzers.

For what it's worth my experience is contrary to yours.
I've had no-one else worry that this is a nerf - while I have had comments that Sure Hands as a starting skill might be too good(!)

I certainly disagree that the pick-up is often risk-free. Both on offense and defense. Unless the kick goes towards your EZ, you need to pick it up. And picking up the ball is kind of mandatory - throwing over opposing players isn't :wink:

But my main thinking is this:
In early Development, when you can only safely throw fairly short distances, it is (IMO) rare for you to need to throw over someone.
As you develop your team, and you can throw longer, then Safe Throw becomes a more interesting skill pick.
But early on, you'd (IMO) rather have sure hands.

Cheers
Martin

PS - that said, this has caused me to think. Perhaps High Elf Throwers should have been given accurate rather than sure hands. After all, High Elfs are about the Throwers. And right now I'd rather have a Wood Elf one on my team.

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by dode74 »

In early Development, when you can only safely throw fairly short distances, it is (IMO) rare for you to need to throw over someone.
It's not the "throw over someone" bit, it's the "hold on to a fumble" bit which matters early on.
AG4 unkilled Long Bomb is a -2 modifier, so 5 or 6 to be accurate, 4 is inaccurate and 3 or less is a fumble, which, with Pass, is a 16/36 failure rate and turnover chance (ignoring interceptions since passing over a player is, as you say, optional).
Safe Throw doesn't change the failure rate, but it does change the turnover chance since now 2 from 3 of the fumbles are not a turnover. You now only turn over on a 1 or a 4, and then only on the reroll (because you will very likely reroll at least a natural 1, and likely a 4 positioning dependent). Assuming you reroll any failed pass it's not an 8/36 chance; if you only reroll a 1 or 4 (i.e. keep hold of fumbles on 2-3) then it's a 4/36 chance.

The reason you don't take it later on is that adding accurate beforehand reduces the effectiveness of safe throw. You go from 16/36 failure to 9/36 failure. Safe Throw only works now on a natural 2 (1 is a fumble and 3 is inaccurate), meaning it works on 3/36 results (roll 1-3 then rr 2).

Sure, not every throw is a Long Bomb, but the logic that you "can only safely throw short distances" isn't, imo, accurate at all.

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by plasmoid »

I get your point. It just jars with my experience of High Elf opponents.
I rarely find them to be happy with throwing the ball on the ground causing a turnover. Nor with the thrower ending his action (in the backfield) still holding the ball. He usually threw it for a reason.

I'm not saying Safe Throw is a complete dud.
But I am saying it rarely gets taken or used.
And as a signature skill for the signature player, it doesn't really deliver.

So I went looking for something more useful for them.
As stated, accurate might have been a better choice. But there you go.

Cheers
Martin

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by dode74 »

It rarely gets taken because it is of less use on more developed teams, as I showed. What your change to Sure Hands would do is nerf the low-TV passing game and buff the team at high TV (where they don't need Safe Throw so much and are more likely to need the pickup RR).
I rarely find them to be happy with throwing the ball on the ground causing a turnover. Nor with the thrower ending his action (in the backfield) still holding the ball.
Who said throwing at the ground? I didn't. And I am quite sure that most of them would rather end with the ball in the thrower's hands than on the floor near him.

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by Jas1279 »

Hey Plasmoid,
Thanks for taking the time to reply. Accurate? now that would be a useful and small early boost.

I’ve done a little stats analysis based on the data most readily available to me (UKBBL current season -8 high elf teams who have all played 4 games at TVs which sit currently at 1190, 1290, 1770, 1890, 1900, 1830, 1940, 2150)

Between them high elf catchers have made a total of 8 passes for a total of ‘36’ yards/meters/funny cyanide units of pitch distance in the course of 32 games (average pass distance ‘4.5’)

High elf throwers have made a total of 47 passes covering ‘490’ yards/meters/funny cyanide units of pitch distance in the course of 32 games (average pass distance ’10.43’)

There seemed to be two outliers who may have been skilling up (one 12 passes for ‘70’, one 14 passes for ‘134’) stripping those out would leave 21 passes down to throwers on an average distance of ’13.6’

Another interesting note is across those 8 teams and TVs there is only *one* thrower with sure hands skill, there are however *six* with strong arm (a double’s skill at that!).

There were no interceptions in the dataset affecting any of the 32 games.

So unless UKBBL coaches have gone off collectively on a weird tangent (and I’d claim them as a generally ‘competent’ coach dataset, some I may boldly claim as ‘good’ players) my assertion would be high elf coaches really don’t value sure hands on their key positional / signature player, they are however being built for distance and being actively used to throw the distance.

I don’t know how many matches you’ve been using in your NTBB trial and at what TV but on my numbers (and personal experience) passing and passing over distance seems very very much a part of the high elf playbook. Safe throw is something that highly complements their signature player in the role he is employed in (both preventing turnovers for slightly ambitious lobs and ensuring 1/6 that goes near marked opposition doesn’t go badly wrong)
Sure hands on my numbers and experience is something that is held as low value (often done early in the half when a RR is available -later half pickups tends to be a fast player / catcher getting in and nabbing it more often no?)

Hence my concern swapping something very very complimentary to the races key player (personally regarded as essential) for something collectively earmarked as low value/inconsequential by regular Helf coaches seems much more a negative than a positive (or rather a very skewed and unbalanced trade off of a key part of their high TV game for a minor boost at low TV).

DS

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by Fassbinder75 »

You nailed it Jas. Losing Safe Throw for Sure Hands is a nerf.

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by MattDakka »

Jas1279 wrote: Not really context specific, I find high elves have a strong offence and it is usually to their advantage to either score quickly when receiving the kick and/or generally get the ball secure and up the field to the scoring line past the opposition asap where they may then elect to stall if ther have sufficient players and space to keep things tightly locked down. no?
Unless you must score in 2 turns (for example to equalize before half ends), a quick score should be avoided. Stalling is the key to win games.
Jas1279 wrote: yes i use the term 'cage' loosely here -intent is generally get a group of defenders up the pitch in a defensive formation (cage or loose cage) with a catcher in the middle likely to remain unmarked / unharassed to recieve a 2+ pass next turn

Key advantage being the ball can be kept safely down field out of range of the opposition and if the enemy's line is particularly porus you can get 3-4 potential receivers up the pitch for a choice of scoring with whoever is marked least effectively.

This gives you options the 2+ (safe) pass to push receivers up and past the enemy on both fringes forcing them to split their backfield defence.
I played that kind of game, and if you manage to delay the score it works, the problem is when you have to keep the ball in your backfield, on a slow MA 6 thrower, while all your players are marked and you have to dodge away each turn, with opponent players chasing your thrower as well, given that at high TV each blitz is a likely CAS. While doing this for 2-3 turns is quite easy, stalling a whole half with the thrower deep in your backfield (thus unable to pass the ball to one catcher due to lack of range) and the rest of your team on the other half of the pitch is not so viable.
A MA 8 Catcher is wonderful because he can carry the ball here and there remaining quite safely away from opponent players, until he can find a gap to score/passing the ball if required. The point is that stalling with a MA 8 catcher is easier than with a MA 6 Thrower (sounds counter-intuitive, I know).

Jas1279 wrote: I play against them (Mr AndyDavo mostly), they tend to run more and pass less... and throw the opposition out the side of the pitch :)
Of course, they are not going to pass most of times, the pass is a B plan generally used when outnumbered.
The higher the TV, the more likely they are going to pass the ball.
Jas1279 wrote: Yes high elves are faster but usually take 2 turns minimum to score. Pushing the ball up field/ committing to a single line of attack usually involves negotiating a tighter opposition defence as the defending team will focus on the ball carrier and where they are on the pitch no?. High elves can currently 'safely' pass and catch on re-rolled 2+'s most of the time to create a ton of options on offence, splitting the defence all over in the process, all whilst keeeping the ball safely out of range of the enemy (and avoid a punchup in the process). Is *that* not a key strength high elves are designed to exploit? It certainly has been in my experience and it seems a very very high price to give up that key racial strength for a lowly 'utility' skill to be mainly used at non-critcal points of the game, out of range of the opposition, to maybe save a 50k reroll? This certainly seems a very big dent in the race's capability.
I play using a Catcher as ball carrier, keeping him in my half of the pitch, moving him towards either my endzone, the sidelines or opponent's half of the pitch according to how his team moves, and I don't commit to a flank early, I move some players on the wide zones, trying to keep a net of tackle zones to prevent my Catcher being marked.
If my opponent chases my ball carrier I move him away where there is space to do so and still being safe, trying to move my other players in order to create space for him to move to on the next turn (by blitzing, dodging and screening).
I found that a quick redeploying of the ball carrier was harder when using the Thrower, mainly due to his low MA 6 (2 squares are a huge difference when stalling the game).
Using a thrower can't make you stall the game as easily, because if you pass the ball soon, you are not stalling (so the opponent can equalize quite easily), if you are passing the ball on the very last turns of the drive your potential receivers will be man-marked or double-marked (because your opponent spent his turns bashing your team so he has more players than you) making the "safe" pass option not so safe (let's say a 2+ pass in the best case, a likely interception to deal with, either a 3+ or 4+ catch, either a 2+ or 3+ dodge).
The Catcher can be screened easily and he can move the ball more reliably (by running with it, therefore moving it 8 squares per turn) for all the half.
It's not that the Thrower can't score quickly, the problem is that, if you want to win, you don't want to score quickly, but keep the ball safe for as many turns as you can.

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by Jas1279 »

@Matt,

Ok so i think we've established the following.

You have a high elf playstyle that from the sounds of it completely ignores the thrower, period. One which leans heavily on the catchers

I have established a trend from my dataset that within the 8 team/32 game sample the thrower *is* being used to pass the ball, to pass the ball over distance. Further that skills supporting long ranged passing are favoured whereas sure hands is emphatically not favoured.

I would argue the latter playstyle is not uncommon and is significantly negatively impacted by the loss of safe throw.

I would urge plasmoid should he review his NTBB ruleset in a future revision that high elfs get a bit more consideration. Especially if sure hands is not achieving what he was hoping for at the low TV end, perhaps consideration could be given to either:

a) a diferent tweak could be explored to make a smaller positive impact at low TV but which does not hammer them with a big nerf at higher TVs by wrecking thrower build possibilities

b) they are kept unchanged (people expect norse/amazons to fall apart over time as TV heads upwards and they suffer from AV7 woes, perhaps high elves can happily exist as a side that is *slightly* less competative at low TV but remains competative 'as is' at mid to high TV with it's current variety of playstyles, ie both those that use the thrower and those which ignore the thrower)

I would also be interested in seeing other data from other leagues that have been around a while on the passing habits and thrower builds established high elf teams adopt.

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by dode74 »

FOL data shows that high elves pass more than any other team, and elves in general pass far more than all the other teams.

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by Jas1279 »

dode74 wrote:FOL data shows that high elves pass more than any other team, and elves in general pass far more than all the other teams.
Which would support the position that other playstyles are prevalent for high elves vs Matt's -> "high elves should't passing/using their thrower they should run the ball with catchers" option.

I am not saying you are wrong matt more that your approach is not the only one and others (ie the passing game) are common.

It would also tentatively support the argument significantly impairing the high elf passing game isn't something they'll thank you for at all :(

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by Fassbinder75 »

It should be obvious to everyone participating in this thread that not all skills are equal in the different contexts - specifically applied OOTB or as part of a level up, and also from team to team. Applying a catch all statement "Safe Throw is not as useful generally as Sure Hands therefore applying it to High Elf Throwers is a buff" ignores the fact that:

1. A High Elf Thrower will likely not have to consider extra movement to avoid the possibility of Interceptions (except against Slann)
2. Allows the coach to take longer passes with less risk of fumbling the ball and causing a turnover.
3. It gives a re-roll to cancel Interceptions. Sure Hands can be re-rolled with TRR, Interceptions can't.
4. (Fluff) Its a unique selling point for High Elves, a side that has had their uniqueness stripped away with successive expansions (ST3 Catchers) loses another piece.

I accept that its not a very good skill and only of value to a few players. It just happens to be that High Elf Throwers are one of the few.

I also accept that Sure Hands is likely to provide an initial boost, but the TRR saving aspect at low TV is not enough of a buff to strip the colour and strategy of the side generally.

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Re: NTBB2.0/2014

Post by MattDakka »

Jas1279 wrote:
dode74 wrote:FOL data shows that high elves pass more than any other team, and elves in general pass far more than all the other teams.
Which would support the position that other playstyles are prevalent for high elves vs Matt's -> "high elves should't passing/using their thrower they should run the ball with catchers" option.

I am not saying you are wrong matt more that your approach is not the only one and others (ie the passing game) are common.

It would also tentatively support the argument significantly impairing the high elf passing game isn't something they'll thank you for at all :(
Prevalent doesn't equal more winning or best, though.
Passing is an unconservative thing to do, even with HE, the fact they have a thrower doesn't mean they should rely heavily on passing game.
I guess that giving to HE the best pass game was the designers' intent, but competitive approach avoids passing whenever possible, for the reasons I explained.

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