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 Post subject: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:43 am 
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I want to hear what people would think the impact would be of this idea.

Change to the Dodge skill. Add to the text: "Rerolling dodges with the dodge skill always fail on an unmodified 1 or 2"

Why? I think one the more boring things in the game is how much less risk dodging becomes with AG 4 compared to AG 3. I think this makes AG4 players so much better when they get dodge, and makes AG4 teams develop substansially better than AG3. Playing a AG4/dodge to me to often becomes a "hope for the snakeeyes game" with a lot of luck-factor. My idea is that if dodge skill becomes a little more risky for AG4+ players, it would make the game more equal between AG3 and AG4 teams over a range of TV and reduce the luck-factor. I prefer it to splitting up the the Dodge skill into 2 skills because i think that would have to much impact and to much tilt the game towards bash and i generally just like to keep the number of skills down. This becomes something of a middleroad.
Not claiming that this is the only or the most unbalansed thing in the game or that i have proof this is anything else than a subjective problem.


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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:09 am 
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I like it, though the fairy and timmy coaches will pitch tantrums….

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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:52 pm 
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Might be an ok house rule for tournament play (maybe) but what buff are you going to give to elves for league play (where they don't dominate)?

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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:48 pm 
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I'd rather add 'block skill cannot be used on rerolls'

Blocking is too reliable when you get multiple dice with reroll that only fail on a '1' with block. If anything needs a little more risk attached to it, it's bash.


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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:22 am 
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Darkson wrote:
Might be an ok house rule for tournament play (maybe) but what buff are you going to give to elves for league play (where they don't dominate)?


How about do not roll for armour when failing a rerolled dodge? (dodge makes the tackle softer)

Shushnik wrote:

I'd rather add 'block skill cannot be used on rerolls


This is an interesting idea. What about wrestle, same rule?


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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:27 pm 
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always interesting to hear discussion on house rules, but is there even a need for this change outside of your personal view and experiences.

Elves don't dominate in leagues so AG4 is not the big bad you postulate. no evidence bears out the need for a massive change to dodge or block.

and Digger, the Timmy comment? again?!? let the analogy die mate, its old and sometimes misused

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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:49 pm 
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voyagers_uk wrote:
and Digger, the Timmy comment? again?!? let the analogy die mate, its old and sometimes misused

Well, that was 6 months ago...

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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:46 am 
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I appreciate that the OP acknowledged that his problem could only be his subjective opinion. I wish the respondents would acknowledge their own views the same.
Elf races have dominated my local league for 4 years. 11 of 14 season playoff winners were elf races. Two of the other three were 4 AG hybrids.

Regardless, the OP asked what impact it would have.
Elf races suffer more turnovers.
Elf races suffer more injuries.
More valuable players on the ground leads to more fouls, adding more injuries. ("Ooh, I see a wardancer just laying there.")
More turnovers and injuries can definitely have a snowball effect.
Elf races lose more.
Same is true to a lesser extent for Gutter Runners, Snotlings, Vampires, Slann Catchers, and Underworld Goblins. At least four of these teams need all the buffs they can get, not nerfs.
Amazon, Human, Chaos, Nurgle, and Ogre have star players that become slightly less effective. These star players were already foul targets.

Hard to measure the significance and magnitude of each of the above effects.
I certainly wouldn't recommend it for a league rule, but as mentioned, might be fine for tournament.

Other interesting idea:
Dodge skill no longer gives a reroll, but a failed dodge no longer causes a turnover, unless the player was carrying the ball.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:54 am 
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If we're using anecdotal evidence then over 8 seasons, of various lengths and number of teams (including a couple of short seasons that should suit elves) we've never had a Elf team win, of any flavour, and only once by a Skaven team.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:11 am 
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It's not anecdotal, it is just a small sample size. So thank you for adding more data. Together, we have an elf race winning 11 of 22 seasons.
But this is still a small sample size.

Let's look at some larger sample sizes.
NAF LRB6 (over 113k games): elf races average 6th of 24 (tournament, not league environment)
Cyanide OCC (over 24k games): elf races average 5th of 23
Cyanide FOL (over 100k games): elf races average 8th of 23
FUMBBL B before scheduler change (over 175k): elf races average 10th of 23
FUMBBL B before scheduler change (over 55k): elf races average 10th of 23

Sources:
http://naf.talkfantasyfootball.org/lrb6.html
http://forum.bloodbowl-game.com/viewtop ... 988#p58988

I think a preponderance of evidence suggests elf teams win more often than they lose compared to non-elf teams.
I am not saying I think elf teams, on average, are broken or overpowered, just better than the average of everything else.
I would not support a house rule to nerf them, but I won't be dismissive of someone who wants to make elves closer to average.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:36 am 
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I don't think you can average elf stats, then say it's out of 23/24 races, as you counted each elf team twice. Then you need to take into account there are (depending on location) there are 8+ teams they're meant to be better than by design.

So taking you NAF figures they're on average 6th of 13 top tier races - doesn't seem an issue.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 7:16 am 
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CyberedElf wrote:
It's not anecdotal, it is just a small sample size. So thank you for adding more data. Together, we have an elf race winning 11 of 22 seasons.
But this is still a small sample size.

Let's look at some larger sample sizes.
NAF LRB6 (over 113k games): elf races average 6th of 24 (tournament, not league environment)
Cyanide OCC (over 24k games): elf races average 5th of 23
Cyanide FOL (over 100k games): elf races average 8th of 23
FUMBBL B before scheduler change (over 175k): elf races average 10th of 23
FUMBBL B before scheduler change (over 55k): elf races average 10th of 23

Sources:
http://naf.talkfantasyfootball.org/lrb6.html
http://forum.bloodbowl-game.com/viewtop ... 988#p58988

I think a preponderance of evidence suggests elf teams win more often than they lose compared to non-elf teams.
I am not saying I think elf teams, on average, are broken or overpowered, just better than the average of everything else.
I would not support a house rule to nerf them, but I won't be dismissive of someone who wants to make elves closer to average.

Given that second source is me, I'd like to know how you accounted for the margins of error when you came up with those rankings, and to what confidence interval you are working. Because I don't think the data given in those charts is anywhere near enough to form the conclusions you've formed.


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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:34 pm 
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Darkson wrote:
I don't think you can average elf stats, then say it's out of 23/24 races, as you counted each elf team twice. Then you need to take into account there are (depending on location) there are 8+ teams they're meant to be better than by design.

So taking you NAF figures they're on average 6th of 13 top tier races - doesn't seem an issue.

To paraphrase "They are not above average when you get rid of the bad teams." Well, duh. I'm 6' tall, but I'm below average height if you don't count people under 5' 11". Talk about moving the endzone.
I did not say it was an issue. I never said they were TOO good. It seems we can agree they are in the top tier. Your first post just indicated that if they were nerfed, then they MUST receive a buff.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:37 pm 
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So they're in the top tier now.
You want to nerf them
Therefore they'll need a buff.
Duh.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodge skill reroll always on 3+ or worse
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:42 pm 
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dode74 wrote:
Given that second source is me, I'd like to know how you accounted for the margins of error when you came up with those rankings, and to what confidence interval you are working. Because I don't think the data given in those charts is anywhere near enough to form the conclusions you've formed.

Dode, I appreciate your desire for statistical rigor. I do not feel that this discussion requires the effort that you suggest. I, also, could not find the raw data you used or your methodology. It was not made available with your outputs. In the case of future discussions, would you provide me the source of your raw data and possibly the script you used? (I seem to recall you stated somewhere that you used R.)
I do feel that there is sufficient information to suggest a conclusion, if not to confirm it. But, if there is not enough evidence to suggest that elves are good, then there certainly has not been presented enough evidence that elves are bad. Therefore, I will still object to the opinion that if Dodge is nerfed, then elves must be buffed.
(For the record, I will restate I do not think Dodge needs to be nerfed.)

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