today the kick-offs calculator, tomorrow...

Mestari · Post by **Mestari** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 11:20 am

I feel happy with the kick-off calculator. It's nice tool for evaluating probabilities in kick-offs.

Now, it's not ready yet (what use is it without being able to place opposing players in there and calculate the odds with them?

), but still I started thinking:

Are there any other statistical/probability tools (for BB) that you would like me to do?

Any ideas? I'm not promising that they'll be ready next week (or even year), but I'd like to hear what kind of tools people think that they'd (even occasionally) need.

Post by **DoubleSkulls** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 11:28 am

Chances of casualties against varying armour, with the possibility of altering

block dice
skills (block, dodge, tackle, mb, claw, rsf etc)
opponent av

Multiple ag roll probabilities (e.g. 2 GFI's or one 3+ dodge when I don't have the dodge skill but do have a TRR).

Ian

Post by **voyagers_uk** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 11:48 am

that would be cool. Next would be a calculator that (given the team rosters) could give you odds of victory. So that you could run a book at the tournaments and have some side betting going on with the favourites.

TiMuN · Post by **TiMuN** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 12:41 pm

I guess next thing would be a victory calculator ... so the leagues are set, played by the calculator, and set for the prices

Come on guys! Let those newbies use their 'grey matter', do not make them 'statistic zombies'

Zombie · Post by **Zombie** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 7:54 pm

How about these? Sorry if they don't show up properly.

Usefulness of Pro, Piling on and Mighty blow

On a 2-die block against an opponent with Block, here are the chances of the given skill either helping or making matters worse (it’s assumed that Pro isn’t used on double skulls, but a team reroll is used instead).

Skill Attacker Victim Helping Making things worse
Pro MB or not Any 11.6% (1 in 8.6) 0.6% (1 in 173)
Mighty blow Nothing AV9 9% (1 in 11.1) 0% (0 in ¥)
Mighty blow Nothing AV8 12.3% (1 in 8.1) 0% (0 in ¥)
Mighty blow Nothing AV7 16.1% (1 in 6.2) 0% (0 in ¥)
Mighty blow Pro AV9 10.8% (1 in 9.3) 0% (0 in ¥)
Mighty blow Pro AV8 14.8% (1 in 6.7) 0% (0 in ¥)
Mighty blow Pro AV7 19.4% (1 in 5.2) 0% (0 in ¥)
Pro + MB Nothing AV9 20.6% (1 in 4.9) 0.6% (1 in 173)
Pro + MB Nothing AV8 23.9% (1 in 4.2) 0.6% (1 in 173)
Pro + MB Nothing AV7 27.7% (1 in 3.6) 0.6% (1 in 173)
Piling on ST5 AV9 38% (1 in 2.6) 19% (1 in 5.3)
Piling on ST5 AV8 36.5% (1 in 2.7) 20.6% (1 in 4.9)
Piling on ST5 AV7 31.8% (1 in 3.1) 25.4% (1 in 3.9)
Piling on ST4 AV9 31.8% (1 in 3.1) 25.4% (1 in 3.9)
Piling on ST4 AV8 31.8% (1 in 3.1) 25.4% (1 in 3.9)
Piling on ST4 AV7 28.6% (1 in 3.5) 28.6% (1 in 3.5)
Piling on ST3 AV9 23.7% (1 in 4.2) 33.3% (1 in 3)
Piling on ST3 AV8 25.4% (1 in 3.9) 31.8% (1 in 3.1)
Piling on ST3 AV7 23.7% (1 in 4.2) 33.3% (1 in 3)
PO + MB ST5 AV9 40.7% (1 in 2.4) 16.3% (1 in 6.1)
PO + MB ST5 AV8 40.9% (1 in 2.4) 16.2% (1 in 6.1)
PO + MB ST5 AV7 38.3% (1 in 2.6) 18.8% (1 in 5.4)
PO + MB ST4 AV9 34.3% (1 in 2.9) 22.7% (1 in 4.4)
PO + MB ST4 AV8 36.2% (1 in 2.7) 21% (1 in 4.8)
PO + MB ST4 AV7 35.2% (1 in 2.8) 21.9% (1 in 4.6)
PO + MB ST3 AV9 26.4% (1 in 3.8) 30.6% (1 in 3.3)
PO + MB ST3 AV8 29.8% (1 in 3.4) 27.3% (1 in 3.7)
PO + MB ST3 AV7 30.4% (1 in 3.3) 26.7% (1 in 3.7)
Piling on ST5 + MB AV9 33.5% (1 in 3) 23.6% (1 in 4.3)
Piling on ST5 + MB AV8 30.7% (1 in 3.2) 26.3% (1 in 3.8)
Piling on ST5 + MB AV7 24.9% (1 in 4) 32.3% (1 in 3.1)
Piling on ST4 + MB AV9 27.1% (1 in 3.7) 29.9% (1 in 3.3)
Piling on ST4 + MB AV8 26% (1 in 3.9) 31.1% (1 in 3.2)
Piling on ST4 + MB AV7 21.7% (1 in 4.6) 35.5% (1 in 2.8)
Piling on ST3 + MB AV9 19.2% (1 in 5.3) 37.9% (1 in 2.6)
Piling on ST3 + MB AV8 19.6% (1 in 5.1) 37.4% (1 in 2.6)
Piling on ST3 + MB AV7 17% (1 in 5.9) 40.2% (1 in 2.5)
Mighty blow ST4 + PO AV9 11.4% (1 in 8.8) 0% (0 in ¥)
Mighty blow ST4 + PO AV8 13.3% (1 in 7.6) 0% (0 in ¥)
Mighty blow ST4 + PO AV7 14.5% (1 in 6.9) 0% (0 in ¥)
Mighty blow ST3 + PO AV9 9.3% (1 in 10.8) 0% (0 in ¥)
Mighty blow ST3 + PO AV8 11.4% (1 in 8.8) 0% (0 in ¥)
Mighty blow ST3 + PO AV7 13.3% (1 in 7.6) 0% (0 in ¥)

Piling on is worth it for ST5 and ST4 guys, but not for ST3.
Pro is better than Mighty blow, except against AV7.
Pro + Mighty blow kicks ass.

Once the opponent is down…

Chaos dwarf with MB + Piling on against...
AV7: CAS 1 in 4 (23%); KO 1 in 4 (25%); stunned 1 in 3 (35%); nothing 1 in 6 (17%).
AV8: CAS 1 in 5 (20%); KO 1 in 5 (22%); stunned 1 in 3 (30%); nothing 1 in 4 (28%).
AV9: CAS 1 in 6 (16%); KO 1 in 6 (18%); stunned 1 in 4 (24%); nothing 2 in 5 (42%).

Bull centaur with MB + Piling on against...
AV7: CAS 1 in 4 (25%); KO 1 in 4 (28%); stunned 2 in 5 (38%); nothing 1 in 12 (8%).
AV8: CAS 1 in 4 (23%); KO 1 in 4 (25%); stunned 1 in 3 (35%); nothing 1 in 6 (17%).
AV9: CAS 1 in 5 (20%); KO 1 in 5 (22%); stunned 1 in 3 (30%); nothing 1 in 4 (28%).

Troll with MB + Piling on against...
AV7: CAS 1 in 4 (27%); KO 1 in 3 (30%); stunned 2 in 5 (41%); nothing 1 in 36 (3%).
AV8: CAS 1 in 4 (25%); KO 1 in 4 (28%); stunned 2 in 5 (38%); nothing 1 in 12 (8%).
AV9: CAS 1 in 4 (23%); KO 1 in 4 (25%); stunned 1 in 3 (35%); nothing 1 in 6 (17%).

Chaos dwarf with Piling on but without MB against…
AV7: CAS 1 in 7 (14%); KO 1 in 5 (21%); stunned 1 in 2 (49%); nothing 1 in 6 (17%).
AV8: CAS 1 in 8 (12%); KO 1 in 6 (18%); stunned 2 in 5 (42%); nothing 1 in 4 (28%).
AV9: CAS 1 in 10 (10%); KO 1 in 7 (15%); stunned 1 in 3 (34%); nothing 2 in 5 (42%).

Bull centaur with Piling on but without MB against…
AV7: CAS 1 in 7 (15%); KO 1 in 4 (23%); stunned 1 in 2 (53%); nothing 1 in 12 (8%).
AV8: CAS 1 in 7 (14%); KO 1 in 5 (21%); stunned 1 in 2 (49%); nothing 1 in 6 (17%).
AV9: CAS 1 in 8 (12%); KO 1 in 6 (18%); stunned 2 in 5 (42%); nothing 1 in 4 (28%).

Chaos dwarf, Bull centaur or Troll with MB but without Piling on against...
AV7: CAS 1 in 7 (14%); KO 1 in 6 (17%); stunned 1 in 4 (27%); nothing 2 in 5 (42%).
AV8: CAS 1 in 10 (10%); KO 1 in 8 (12%); stunned 1 in 5 (20%); nothing 3 in 5 (58%).
AV9: CAS 1 in 15 (6%); KO 1 in 13 (8%); stunned 1 in 7 (13%); nothing 3 in 4 (72%).

Chaos dwarf or Bull centaur with neither Piling on nor MB against…
AV7: CAS 1 in 14 (7%); KO 1 in 10 (10%); stunned 1 in 4 (24%); nothing 3 in 5 (58%).
AV8: CAS 1 in 22 (5%); KO 1 in 14 (7%); stunned 1 in 6 (16%); nothing 3 in 4 (72%).
AV9: CAS 1 in 36 (3%); KO 1 in 24 (4%); stunned 1 in 10 (10%); nothing 5 in 6 (83%).

Trambi · Post by **Trambi** » Tue Oct 15, 2002 10:41 pm

I have done this calculs for choosing the skill for my mummy.
But I like statistic science.
Do you use a BB statistical software or just do that with sheets of paper and pen (like me) ?

Zombie · Post by **Zombie** » Wed Oct 16, 2002 12:22 am

I do it in my head, then enter the numbers in my pocket calculator! PLain and simple, but it works.

Trambi · Post by **Trambi** » Wed Oct 16, 2002 1:07 am

So you don't use a BB software !
thx

Mestari · Post by **Mestari** » Wed Oct 16, 2002 2:22 pm

Trambi wrote: Do you use a BB statistical software or just do that with sheets of paper and pen (like me) ?

Most calculations I do in my head, but more complex ones, that include lots of variables I do with a "probability tree" that displays all the possible events beginning from the starting node and the probability of each end node. With pen and paper. It's really not too hard when you're used to it.

Heiper · Post by **Heiper** » Thu Oct 17, 2002 7:07 am

Mestari wrote:
Most calculations I do in my head, but more complex ones, that include lots of variables I do with a "probability tree" that displays all the possible events beginning from the starting node and the probability of each end node. With pen and paper. It's really not too hard when you're used to it.

Gotta love the Probability Tree, its very handy for things like this

Ancalagon · Post by **Ancalagon** » Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:25 am

I hate maths!

At the end, if you continue calculating, you can make a league without players...