One of the worst thing in a game of Blood Bowl is being predictable, a good player will use that against you very quickly.
I don't completely agree with this statement.
I compare Blood Bowl to chess with dice. The fact that you need to study certain opening moves in chess is because these simply improve the chances of winning vastly.
This is why they are predictable. This might seem boring but this is where the real strategy comes into play. You have no incentive to doing unpredictable stuff when you aren't pressured by the clock running out or because you are running low on players.
I see the most common mistakes in Blood Bowl are made when coaches misjudge the risk to reward ratio.
Sure a 2db block has better odds than ball handling but ball handling has far more result in terms of winning the game. So you can ignore any 2db blocks that don't improve your odds of moving the ball up.
Playing too cautious can be a problem if you don't acknowledge the amount of turns left before the end of the half.
I have not seen many times a coach is punished for playing too cautious, rather the opposite.
I do see opponents get frustrated because they can't seem to counter the opponents cautious execution of their game plan.
The most dangerous way to play is when you don't realise the consequences of a failed action. You prepare for failure in the best way, without impairing your chances when the roll succeeds.
So knowing the odds is one basic factor of risk mitigation. The other factor is how much resources are you willing to give up for the mitigation. The best way is to use positioning that success or failure in one roll has little impact on your 'free moves'. This allows you to build on the success better.
Being predictable means that you know and can anticipate how they will react to certain situations. You can use that to out position the opponent and force them into bad situations where they will have to either move backward or roll hard dice.
I have played against so called "good" strategic players who basically do all the safe moves. The problem is that they often put too many resources on protecting the ball rather than positioning the players. This usually mean I can single out and out muscle the rest of their team and eventually take the ball away from them when they crack and start to do crazy stuff. That is why I hate stalling games in more competitive player styles. In a league you might win a few games but eventually people will catch on and start gang fouling them since they are not going to score too early anyway, everyone buy bribes against them and kick their but. I have seen it in league play...
You always need a good eye for risk management that is true... but there is such a thing as playing too cautiously too, you can get seriously hurt that way.
If you play cowboy style you will likely not win that many games either though, the same with new players and their willingness to put their players in opposing players tackle zones for no good reasons. Especially with armour 8 and 7 teams. It sort of annoys me when a player blames the dice for having half their team knocked out when clearly they made it all happen by badly positioning their players and allowing the opposing player continuously block their players for no good reasons.
I otherwise agree that the true skill is risk versus reward calculation using the bigger picture, not every individual move. You often need to take some risk to actually do well in the long run. You must also just face that you can't win them all, sometimes dice are just going to do what dice does and screw you over no matter what you do.