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 Post subject: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:04 am 
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Here is a post for those smarter than me...

I recently read a great article about judging risks in Blood Bowl and taking all your easy rolls first. after polling the TBB forums, I've managed to complie a list of posible actiona and the chance it could end your turn.

How many times have you watched a rookie make a silly mistake? How many times have you snatched defeat from the jaws of victory? There are obviously a lot of other factors to consider, but this may help offer some insight priortising your actions in BB!

EDIT: With Jural's & Grogmir's help I've ordered these by risk.


Assuming that you have a Team Re-Roll available, your chance of turn over is...

1) 3 Dice Block (I have Block) = 0.00%
2) 2 dice Block (I have Block) = 0.08%
3) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block) = 0.14%
4) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block) = 1.23%
5) 1 die block (I have Block) = 2.78%
6) 2+ Roll (AG4 dodge) = 2.78%
7) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4) = 7.40%
8 ) 2 dice against Block (I have Block) = 9.36%
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 11.1%
10) 3+ Roll (AG3 Dodge) = 11.1%
11) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4) = 16.67%
12) 3 dice against Block (I have Block) = 17.72%
13) 4+ Roll (AG2 Dodge) = 25.00%
14) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3) = 25.93%
15) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 30.86%
16) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3) = 38.89%
17) 5+ Roll (AG1 Dodge) = 44.44%
18 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 49.52%
19) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2) = 50.00%
20) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2) = 63.89%
21) 6+ roll (AG3 Long Bomb) = 69.44%
22) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1) = 66.67%
~//~
Without a Team Re-roll available your chance of turn over is...

1) 3 Dice Block (I have Block) = 0.46%
2) 2 dice Block (I have Block) = 2.78%
3) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block) = 3.70%
4) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block) = 11.11%
5) 1 die block (I have Block) = 16.67%
6) 2+ Roll (AG4 dodge) = 16.67%
7) 2 dice against Block (I have Block) = 30.60%
8 ) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4) = 30.60%
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 33.33%
10) 3+ Roll (AG3 Dodge) = 33.33%
11) 3 dice against Block (I have Block) = 42.10%
12) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4) = 44.40%
13) 4+ Roll (AG2 Dodge) = 50.00%
14) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3) = 55.56%
15) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 55.56%
16) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3) = 66.67%
17) 5+ Roll (AG1 Dodge) = 66.67%
18 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 70.37%
19) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2) = 75.00%
20) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2) = 83.33%
21) 6+ roll (AG3 Long Bomb) = 83.33%
22) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1) = 88.89%

Thanks in advance!

EDIT: Is Block better than Pro on Big Guys?
Code:
~~~~~~~~~~|1Dice |2Dice |3Dice |
No Skills |33.33%|11.11%| 3.70%|
With Block|16.67%| 2.78%| 0.46%|
With Pro  |27.77%| 6.20%| 1.99%|
With Both |10.00%| 1.40%| 0.00%|
[/quote]
Yes!

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Last edited by bouf on Fri Feb 01, 2008 6:17 am, edited 7 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Turn Over = Bad
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:23 am 
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EDIT- Removed some stupid mistakes...

Here you go. I assume there are no re-rolls or pro available, that makes it more complex...

bouf wrote:
Here is a question for those smarter than me...

I recently read a great article about judging risks in Blood Bowl and taking all your easy rolls first. Just so we can all see the stats printed in one place; Can you please tell me the % chance of turn over for the following events?

1) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block)= 1/27 (3.7%)
2) 3 Dice Block (I have Block)= 1/216 (0.4%)
3) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block)= 1/9 (11%)
4) 2 dice Block (I have Block)= 1/36 (2.8%)
5) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 33%
6) 1 die block (I have Block) = 17%
7) 2 dice against Block (You have Block, I don't)= 5/9 (55%)
8 ) 2 dice against Block (We both have block)= 9/36 (30.5%)
9) 2 dice against Block (I have Block, you dont)= 9/36 (30.5%)
10) 3 dice against Block (You have Block, I don't)= 19/27 (70.3%)
11) 3 dice against Block (We both have block)= 91/216(42.1%)
12) 3 dice against Block (I have Block, you dont)= 91/216 (42.1%)
13) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2)= 5/6 (83%)
14) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3)= 2/3 (67%)
15) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4)= 4/9 (44%)
16) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1)= 8/9 (89%)
17) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2)= 3/4 (75%)
18 ) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3)= 5/9 (55%)
19) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4)= 11/36 (30.5%)
20) "What can I put to make 20?"= ???
Thanks in advance!


Last edited by Jural on Thu Jan 24, 2008 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject:
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:49 am 
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Thanks Jural...

I'll update the OP and sort in order of risk!

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 Post subject:
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 6:03 am 
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Being no math wizz

I'm a little suprised where some of these actions sit. The consecutive 2+ dodges for example... I always considered these quite safe. (Slann Catcher leaps over a guy then dodges away) To find out that it's only marginaly safer than a 1dBlock without Block...

:o I'm shocked! :o

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 Post subject: Re: Turn Over = Bad
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 6:41 am 
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Jural wrote:

7) 2 dice against Block (You have Block, I don't)= 5/9 (55%)
10) 3 dice against Block (You have Block, I don't)= 19/27 (70.3%)

8 ) 2 dice against Block (We both have block)= 25/36 (69.4%)
11) 3 dice against Block (We both have block)= 91/216(42.1%)


Why is the 3 dice block safer? (11 vs 8 ) should these be the other way around?

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 Post subject: Re: Turn Over = Bad
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 7:35 am 
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bouf wrote:
Why is the 3 dice block safer? (11 vs 8 ) should these be the other way around?


The two die block has the same chance of turnover as the two 2+ Dodge-rolls. The 69% is the chance of not turning over.

An easy mistake to make when you have so many similar calculations. Using Excel or something similar is good for those so you avoid mistakes like this.


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 Post subject: Re: Turn Over = Bad
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 8:56 am 
Legend
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bouf wrote:
Why is the 3 dice block safer? (11 vs 8 ) should these be the other way around?


Because I made a mistake! (See post above.) I did it all in my head (with a calc for the percents) instead of using Excel... call me lazy!

The odds of turnover with a 2 die against block are 55% (5/9) if you don't have block, and only 11/36 (30.5%) if you don't.

For 3 die blocks, the odds of turnover are a whopping 70.3% without block, and a manageable (relatively speaking) 42.1% with block.

So 3 die against are higher turnover risks than 2 die against, but it's better to have a 3 die against with block than it is to have a 2 die against without block. The same holds true for 1 die blocks without block (33% turnover risk) vs. 2 die down blocks with block (30.5% turnover risk.)


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 Post subject: Re: Turn Over = Bad
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 9:49 am 
Ex-Mega Star, now just a Super Star
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Jural wrote:
I did it all in my head (with a calc for the percents) instead of using Excel... call me lazy!


I'd rather see using Excel as a sign of laziness. You've got mad calculator skillz.


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 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 10:14 am 
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I'm no statistician... how do you calculate dependencies? example: 2 x 3+ dodge rolls...

I know that both are 33.3% chance of Turnover.

So, first you have a 2 in 6 or 33.3% chance to fail, then dependant on the success of that, you have another 2 in 6 (33.3%) chance to fail. <is that right?> So how do you make that into an equasion?

Shouldn't it be easier/harder than a 2 dice block - without block?

Although the odds are the same for each die, The second die isn't dependant on the success of the first die, rather it's rolled all at once with a single chance of success or failure.

:-? :-? :-? :-? :-? :-? :roll:

high school was so very long ago... and I wasn't exactly payingattention then either... :wink:

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 Post subject:
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 11:04 am 
Legend
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bouf wrote:
I'm no statistician... how do you calculate dependencies? example: 2 x 3+ dodge rolls...

I know that both are 33.3% chance of Turnover.

So, first you have a 2 in 6 or 33.3% chance to fail, then dependant on the success of that, you have another 2 in 6 (33.3%) chance to fail. <is that right?> So how do you make that into an equasion?

Well, first you take the chance of failure on the first roll: which is 1 in 3. After all, if the first one fails the second one is irrelevant (whether both dice are rolled at the same time or sequentially doesn't matter for this).
Then you take the remaining chance of succes for the first roll, which is:
1 - 1/3 = 2/3
This is the chance that the second die will determine failure or succes. You have to multiply this with the chance of failure for the second roll (1/3):
1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9
This gives you the chance of the second die roll giving you a failure. The total chance of failure is now chance of failure with first die + chance of failure on second die:
1/3 + 2/9 = 5/9

I hope this helps!

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 Post subject:
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 11:09 am 
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Too late for advice!


Last edited by Ullis on Thu Jan 24, 2008 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject:
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 11:40 am 
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Quote:
Being no math wizz - I'm a little suprised where some of these actions sit. The consecutive 2+ dodges for example... I always considered these quite safe.


Bouf, before you go panicking please note this part....

RR were not taken into consideration

This is an important thing to remember. The difficultly in the 2x2+Dodge comes from the fact you have to do an easy thing twice. Having a RR will have a much greater effect on these actions than they will a 1dblock (without block).

Without doing the maths the odds with a ReRoll become.

19) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4)= 7.41% chance failure
5) 1 die block (I don't have Block)= 11.1%

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 Post subject:
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 12:27 pm 
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Alright, my pea brain still may not wholy grasp the nitty gritty, but here it is! OP Updated with all the goods!

Now If some one wants to crunch the stats for "RR Available"... I'll add them too!

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 Post subject:
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 2:23 pm 
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You asked....

First figure is without a RR second with a TRR...
1) 3 Dice Block (I have Block) = 0.46% 0.00%
2) 2 dice Block (I have Block) = 2.78% 0.08%
3) 3 Dice Block (I don't have Block) = 3.70% 0.14%
4) 2 dice Block (I don't have Block) = 11.11% 1.23%
5) 1 die block (I have Block) = 16.67% 2.78%
6) 2+ Roll (AG4 dodge) = 16.67% 2.78%
7) 2 dice against Block (I have Block) = 30.60% 9.36%
8 ) 2+ followed by 2+ (two dodges with AG4) = 30.60% 7.40%
9) 1 die block (I don't have Block) = 33.33% 11.1%
10) 3+ Roll (AG3 Dodge) = 33.33% 11.1%
11) 3 dice against Block (I have Block) = 42.10% 17.72%
12) 3+ followed by 2+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG4) = 44.40% 16.67%
13) 4+ Roll (AG2 Dodge) = 50.00% 25.00%
14) 3+ followed by 3+ (two dodges with AG3) = 55.56% 25.93%
15) 2 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 55.56% 30.86%
16) 4+ followed by 3+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG3) = 66.67% 38.89%
17) 5+ Roll (AG1 Dodge) = 66.67% 44.44%
18 ) 3 dice against Block (I don't have Block) = 70.37% 49.52%
19) 4+ followed by 4+ (two dodges with AG2) = 75.00% 50.00%
20) 5+ followed by 4+ (dodging into and then out of a TZ with AG2) =83.33% 63.89%
21) 6+ roll (AG3 Long Bomb) = 83.33% 69.44%
22) 5+ followed by 5+ (two dodges with AG1) = 88.89% 66.67%

I'm not 100% but they shoudl give you an idea.
Grog.

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 Post subject:
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:17 pm 
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It should be pointed out that these are the probabilities of completing the move before you start it.

A single roll of multiple dice is a simple calculation, but when you are going to make consecutive dice rolls the probability changes once the first dice is rolled and the the second and so on.

Dice rolls are independent so if you had an AG4 player making 2 dodges on a 2+ then if the first one is successful your chance of finishing the move successfully becomes 5/6.

Also remember that the order of this list does not take into account that if you a making multiple separate rolls you can usually decide to stop without finishing your originally intended action. E.g. If you want to gfi and fail the first, but reroll and pass. You can choose not to gfi a second time. This makes it less risky than a roll involving 2 dice at the same time with same initial chance of failure!

Sorry to be such a geek, but I'm a Maths teacher and didn't feel that I could let it slide without it tormenting me later! :roll:


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