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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Wed May 12, 2010 1:09 pm 
Kommissar Enthusiasmoff
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Erm, he was kidding.

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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Wed May 12, 2010 9:52 pm 
mattgslater's court jester

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That's why I didn't quote his name.

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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Wed May 12, 2010 11:26 pm 
King of Comedy
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Not buyin' that.

See how I'm not quoting anybody by name, and yet it's obvious that I'm not kidding?

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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Thu May 13, 2010 12:52 am 
mattgslater's court jester

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mattgslater wrote:
Not buyin' that.

See how I'm not quoting anybody by name, and yet it's obvious that I'm not kidding?


I did see a smiley.

mountain this out of the mole hill if you will but it was the worst straw man.

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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:16 am 
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Has anyone done any numbers to include Wrestle? I've been trying to preach on why I took this skill in the tourney I just finished to people, but they just don't seem to get it.

"Wrestle sucks", they tell me. While I stare at them incredulously.

Fun-fact numbers: A bare-naked Human Lineman with ONLY Wrestle hits an Ogre with no skills. 2 dice, opponent's choice.

Chances of various things happening:

Ogre goes down: 25%
Ogre gets pushed: 44.4%
Lineman Skulls: 30.5%

Pretty good odds, I think. :D

Human Lineman with ONLY Wrestle hits a Chaos Dwarf with Block/Tackle. One die.

Chances of various things happening:

Dwarf goes down: 50%
Dwarf gets pushed: 33%
Lineman Skulls: 16%

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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:36 am 
King of Comedy
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Wrestle is situationally better, and yet more limited. It's huge when going after a guy with Block (usually adds between 35% and 125% to knockdown odds [don't get too excited; it's +125% of squat]), or marking a Block player who can't afford to go prone. It's also solid for when you have a guy on the line; having Wrestle will save #2 block up to 1/4 of the time (though usually 7/36) if blocked by a Block player, though there's a 1/12 chance that it backfires if hit by a non-Block player. Otherwise, it's generally inferior, because you'd rather have Block when you want to keep your feet or (especially) when hitting a non-Block player.

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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 3:16 am 
Super Star
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I chose it because I was playing a mobility team (Skaven) and having a RELIABLE way (50%) to peel down a defender with Block or to open a gap in a cage is big.

Block + Block on the front line means we stand there like fools. Wrestle + Block means I have a hole I can move through.

Not to mention that -- even without getting an armour roll -- pulling a Dwarf onto the ground is HUGE compared to a Skaven. He gets up and moves one, I get up and move four. That's a tremendous difference.

As the RECEIVER of a block, Wrestle literally doubles your chances of the attacker going down. This is gigantic on the defenders' turn. Sure, you went down, but that was his goal in the FIRST PLACE. When you get hit, you should be assuming you're going down and be planning accordingly. Wrestle basically upends the entire dynamic of the blocking game by making it possible for the defender to ACTIVELY punish you for blocking. Normally the only way a block can go bad is to skull. Now the defender actually punishes you for hitting them, by taking away your movement next turn.

I think it's a style choice, I personally would value Wrestle more on a fragile, mobile team than Block.

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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 3:14 pm 
King of Comedy
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Dragoonkin wrote:
I think it's a style choice, I personally would value Wrestle more on a fragile, mobile team than Block.

Yeah, that. Mostly. It's a change-up skill for many/most teams, and a bread-and-butter skill for AG3 low-AV teams.

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What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.


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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:46 pm 
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I've always seen one-die without block as having less chance of causing a turn over that a two dice uphill with block skill. I guess part of this is the fact that psychologically it feels weak to let your opponent pick the dice and partly because you have less chance of knocking them down. I think my Dwarves will have to do a few more half dice blocks in the future.

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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 12:40 pm 
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What are the success and turnover probabilities for this action: Player1 (AG4) picks up the ball and makes a short pass to Player2 (AG3), if one or both have the skill pro?

Pick up & Pass action: Player1 (2+, 3+) -> Player2 3+

A) Player1 has pro?
B) Player2 has pro?
C) Both player have pro?

Please keep in mind that u can use a team reroll to reroll a failed pro roll and u can choose to use a team reroll instead of using pro.

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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 3:46 pm 
King of Comedy
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Long_Bomb wrote:
I've always seen one-die without block as having less chance of causing a turn over that a two dice uphill with block skill. I guess part of this is the fact that psychologically it feels weak to let your opponent pick the dice and partly because you have less chance of knocking them down. I think my Dwarves will have to do a few more half dice blocks in the future.
I think it's mostly the knockdown chance, but yeah, I feel the same way.

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What is Nuffle's view? Through a window, two-by-three. He peers through snake eyes.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.


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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:21 pm 
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mattgslater wrote:
Long_Bomb wrote:
I've always seen one-die without block as having less chance of causing a turn over that a two dice uphill with block skill. I guess part of this is the fact that psychologically it feels weak to let your opponent pick the dice and partly because you have less chance of knocking them down. I think my Dwarves will have to do a few more half dice blocks in the future.
I think it's mostly the knockdown chance, but yeah, I feel the same way.


Standard Dwarf/Chaos Dwarf playbook: - at the end of the turn when you've done all the required blocks and moving, throw a few half-dice blocks if you can. A Dwarf has a surprisingly good chance to take down the Ogre, and even if he skulls out, it's a dwarf, he can take it.

Several times I've seen an opponent try several risky dodges in order to get the assists on a strong opponent that they need to take down, when it would of been safer just to throw one guy at him and see how the half-dice block pans out.


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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:24 pm 
King of Comedy
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Kransky wrote:
mattgslater wrote:
Long_Bomb wrote:
I've always seen one-die without block as having less chance of causing a turn over that a two dice uphill with block skill. I guess part of this is the fact that psychologically it feels weak to let your opponent pick the dice and partly because you have less chance of knocking them down. I think my Dwarves will have to do a few more half dice blocks in the future.
I think it's mostly the knockdown chance, but yeah, I feel the same way.


Standard Dwarf/Chaos Dwarf playbook: - at the end of the turn when you've done all the required blocks and moving, throw a few half-dice blocks if you can. A Dwarf has a surprisingly good chance to take down the Ogre, and even if he skulls out, it's a dwarf, he can take it.

Several times I've seen an opponent try several risky dodges in order to get the assists on a strong opponent that they need to take down, when it would of been safer just to throw one guy at him and see how the half-dice block pans out.

There's more to it than safety, if the block is critical. 2/3 x 1/2 = 1/3, by comparison to 1/4 to pow (Block vs rookie) on a half-die. If you really need to get the pow, like if you're hitting the carrier, that difference is important. Even more if you have a TRR. Then, you can RR either the dodge or the block, while on the half-die you can only RR the block if you skull.

3+/1d, with TRR: 11/18 to pow, 11/54 to push, 5/27 to fall.
1/2d, with TRR for skull only: 47/144 to pow, 47/81 to push, 121/1296 to fall.
1/2d with TRR: 7/16 to pow, 1/3 to push, 11/48 to fall.

So yeah, if you have nothing better to do, 1/2d skilled > 3+ for 1d. But if you really need a pow, more block dice is better.

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What is Nuffle's view? Through a window, two-by-three. He peers through snake eyes.
What is Nuffle's lawn? Inches, squares, and tackle zones: Reddened blades of grass.
What is Nuffle's tree? Risk its trunk, space the branches. Touchdowns are its fruit.


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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 14, 2011 12:20 am 
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every time you throw the dice 5 in 6 times you may fail (not actual stats, but based on gameplay)

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 Post subject: Re: Risks of Turnovers in Blood Bowl
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2014 11:25 pm 
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I know this is an old tread but as it is stickied I'm going for it anyway.
Sure the OP was looking for turn-over risk or risks of failure chances. When I'm playing BB I'm also very interested in chance of success. Now here lies the biggest difference between blocking and d6 rolls.

When blocking success varies as most of the time people are looking to knock down the defender but sometimes a push is also a succes. In this case your chance of succes isn't = 1 - chance of failure.
I think, unless you are blocking the ball-carrier, you should always plan your blocking schemes with a push result in mind.

When rolling d6, it is typically miss or hit. So in this cas your chance of success is mostly = 1 - chance of failure.
Which means a total different kind of reward on those rolls. So it is perfectly normal that d6 rolls are more risky as they can result in far better results.
As a side-note to that: a natural 6 is always a success and a 1 a failure.

All this to point out that risk of failure is only half the story when playing BB. I just wanted to make this clear because I remember printing out these chances of TO a long time ago. And I used the probabilties to determine the sequence in which I made my rolls in a turn. This could mean that I needed to waste a TRR before I got to the more risky but that much more important rolls. ;)

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