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Myth Busters: passing gas and others....
Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 2:38 am
by Digger Goreman
Playing around with Samba's odds calculator has led me to realize that an Ag3, 4+ pass at short range is actually as good or better than two gfis to reach quick range....
With reroll 77% (2 gfis + quick pass) vs 75% (short pass)
Without reroll 46% (2 gfis + quick pass) vs 50% (short pass)
Before today I would have tempted nuffle with three dice rolls... not anymore!
Is one gfi any different?
With reroll (1 gfi + quick) 83% vs 75% short
Without reroll (1 gfi + quick) 56% vs 50% short
It seems better to gfi, but the percentages translate to 1/2 and 1/3 pip respectively... is that really worth it?
Are there any other myths to be busted?
Re: Myth Busters: passing gas and others....
Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 6:08 am
by Smeborg
Digger, not sure these are complete odds, as you must factor in the catch in the RR version (unless the receiver has Catch). At AG3:
1xGFI + Quick Pass + Catch (no RR) = 10/27 = .3704
2xGFI + Quick Pass + Catch (no RR) = 25/81 = .3086
Short Pass + Catch (no RR) = 1/3 = .3333
In the first case above, the Short Pass sits nicely between 1xGFI and 2xGFI. Odds with Re-roll:
1xGFI + Quick Pass + Catch (with Team Re-roll) = 55/81 = .6790
2xGFI + Quick Pass + Catch (with Team Re-roll) = 155/243 = .6379
Short Pass + Catch (with Team Re-roll) = 11/18 = .6111
In the second case the immediate Short Pass comes last. As usual, base odds with RR may be similar, but when a RR is added in, the string with more rolls but each at better odds comes out on top. The match situation may sometimes suggest not taking the best odds (for example to avoid a catastrophic failed GFI, putting a player in the dugout and leaving the ball not in a Tackle Zone).
In any case, at the table, I seem always to have to make 2xGFI just to get a Short Pass away (should I be so lucky)!
These odds are not always intuitively obvious, as we are more used to the choice between 2xGFI + Hand-Off vs. Quick Pass.
All the best.
Re: Myth Busters: passing gas and others....
Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 8:22 am
by Toffer
Re: Myth Busters: passing gas and others....
Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 10:19 am
by Digger Goreman
Smeborg wrote:Digger, not sure these are complete odds,....
All the best.
Ah, late nights and all.... Lemme run the numbers again, but am sure you are right....
I see how the target (unless you are punting) makes all the difference.... I'ma gonna shift this over to the Necros vs the world of BB thread and work specifically with undead teams....