Fireball BB2016 - How good is it in tournament?

[Derekhunt]

Title is self-explanatory.

How good is the new fireball? Main issue is that it scatters automatically but you get two for 80,000 which is almost half price compared to before.

Thoughts Welcome!

[CyberedElf]

I think the old CRP wizard was too cheap compared to other inducements. Having played about 10 games with Horatio I would say he is fairly priced compared other inducements.
On average, Horatio is not impressive, but if the dice roll in your favor he can be amazing. The vast majority of the times I have seen him taken he had no significant impact.

I played Khemri a lot in the last year. I would take Horatio just so my opponents could not take him and get lucky. Khemri might not capitalize on loose balls, but they can capitalize on broken cages.

My only argument against him doesn't carry a lot of weight with some people. Horatio is VERY random in usefulness. He can (and often is) 80k wasted, but sometimes he can completely alter the outcome of the game. The argument against him in tournaments is that he tips the luck/skill balance more towards luck. This is BB we are talking about so some luck is assumed, but some people do not want the game to slide anymore towards the luck side of the luck/skill spectrum. I would say a tournament is the environment where this argument might have the most sway.

In general, inducements are not worth their TV, so very few get seen in tournaments I go to. I think Horatio is in that same category. I would rather have 4 more skills or upgrade 3 linemen to positionals than take Horatio EVERY TIME. If my opponent has Horatio I would grin to myself, at least until he rolls the 1 scatter and multiple 4+.

[Derekhunt]

I see - I think if you roll a 2 or more scatter, it is likely that the fireball hasnt done anything and potentially has even hit your own team.

I think the 1d3 scatter is huge and makes it a much more random occurrence that can cause salt levels to rise on the opposing side. I wonder if there was any psychological impact on the enemy and whether it encouraged the opponent to play differently as a result? Maybe that's the most useful impact of the fireball as u try to play around it?

[Jip]

I took him to Elflympics in Yate, last year. Over three matches (so, six fireballs) he managed to K.O one player - one of MY Norse Berzerkers!

I guess, as with most of Blood Bowl, others experiences may vary - there’s probably someone out there who’s used him and killed six players in three games!

Regarding the psychological threat impacting how opponents play, I’ve found most people I’ve played haven’t bothered with either of the Death Zone supplements - I regret buying them myself, for all the use I have(n’t) got out of them. That means a lot of coaches don’t actually know about the (in)famous coaches, so aren’t scared of them!

[Derekhunt]

Haha!

So one datapoint at least. Looks like Horatio is an exercise in tempting Nuffle to smite your own men and getting myself super salty.

I must say that BB2016 has introduced more rather than less randomness into a game.

The last advantage I just thought of was the use of the fireball to potentially prevent STALLING. Maybe I should bring along a wizard miniature and carefully explain what the purpose of Horatio will be.

[CyberedElf]

I don't find Horatio to be much of a psychological threat against people who have played games with him before. It can modify how your opponent plays. Horatio encourages tight cages and maybe extra players near cage. Still not overpowered total effect for 80k.

My league allows Horatio and the old Wizard. When your opponent has both the, combined threat is bigger than the individual threats. A tight cage is more threatened by Wizard/Fireball. A loose cage is more threatened by Horatio.

We banned using Horatio and Wizard at the same time for a season, when we thought Horatio might be overpowered. We have since dropped that ban based on the opinion that Horatio is not that powerful. (I'm am slowly pushing my league to get rid of the Wizard since it isn't in BB2016.)

[Smeborg]

Earlier this year, I used Horatio in a short (4 game) one day tournament. I was playing Halflings (hence the spare cash).

In 7 attempts by me (I forgot to use him once), Horatio missed completely - not even a knockdown - not even a roll for a knockdown.

Conversely, in 2 attempts by one opponent (in the final), Horatio hit one of my cage corners, leading to an immediate successful sack of my ball-carrier, and a turnover score (by HEs).

I know this is a small amount of data, but it seems that the odds of Horatio hitting anything are long, but that when he works, he can decide the game. It is not easy to find good times to use him (because of the risk of hitting your own players). Maybe I would get better with experience (including developing a greater appetite for risk). On the plus side, I suppose, he is rather cheap (half the price of the "old" Wizard), and can be used twice per match.

Horatio works well if there is a caged ball but no opponents within reach of his fireball (e.g. when the ball is in the hands of a slow team following a deep kick by a fast team). So I guess he could be countered to an extent by "hugging" the opponent (standard infantry tactics e.g. in WW2 against artillery and dive bombers). In the above example (turnover score) I neglected to hug my opponent.

I haven't seen enough to convince me to take Horatio again in tournaments, but I will definitely consider him as an inducement in league play. I agree that he is a "highly randomising" factor (a bit like the kick-off table, or ball scatter). Perhaps his bark (threat) is worse than his bite (execution).

Hope that helps.

p.s. Random walk theory, at least as far as I understand it, says that the fireball will scatter on average c. 1.73 squares away from the point at which it is aimed (the square root of 3, being the number of random scatters). This means that you are more likely than not to miss the square at which you aim. I seem to recall someone doing the maths for a scattered Hail Mary Pass (I don't remember if it was on this site), which is the same as Horatio aiming at a lone player. IIRC, the best odds (only slightly better) were obtained for HMP by aiming 1 square away (orthagonally?) from the target (when requiring a direct hit). [Of course Horatio is different, since a fireball is 9 squares, but intuitively it seems that Horatio's odds of hitting a lone ball-carrier would be the same as a Thrower with HMP (assuming a successful pass) aiming at a Catcher with Diving Catch (a 9 square target). I have not seen any such calculation. Horatio aiming at an X-cage is of course different again. I only know how to do such calculations long hand, which is tedious.]

[CyberedElf]

p.s. Random walk theory, at least as far as I understand it, says that the fireball will scatter on average c. 1.73 squares away from the point at which it is aimed (the square root of 3, being the number of random scatters). This means that you are more likely than not to miss the square at which you aim. I seem to recall someone doing the maths for a scattered Hail Mary Pass (I don't remember if it was on this site), which is the same as Horatio aiming at a lone player. IIRC, the best odds (only slightly better) were obtained for HMP by aiming 1 square away (orthagonally?) from the target (when requiring a direct hit). [Of course Horatio is different, since a fireball is 9 squares, but intuitively it seems that Horatio's odds of hitting a lone ball-carrier would be the same as a Thrower with HMP (assuming a successful pass) aiming at a Catcher with Diving Catch (a 9 square target). I have not seen any such calculation. Horatio aiming at an X-cage is of course different again. I only know how to do such calculations long hand, which is tedious.]

Choose a target square anywhere on the pitch, then roll for scatter and move the target square D3 squares in that direction

Horatio does not scatter like an inaccurate pass. "Random walk" is unrelated.
A Bombadier with HMP is more accurate than Horatio.

[Smeborg]

You're right, my mistake.

In one respect Horatio is like the "old" Wizard. He seems to work best against slow caging teams.