FUMBBL and Cyanide bash vs bash blocking study

[mattgslater]

Hey, I want to compile a good set of stats on the relationship between blocks, Cas from blocks, and match outcome. Does anybody know a faster way than scoping out bash teams, scanning their record for games against other bash teams, and looking up the stats for each side?

If not, anybody want to help? Here's how I'll be compiling the data:

1) Eligible matches: both teams must be heavy. What's heavy? Orcs, Chaos, Dwarfs, Chaos Dwarfs, Chaos Pact, Norse, Nurgle, Undead, Khemri... that's 9, and probably at least half the actual teams out there, so maybe a quarter of all the matches played. Pick a coach, sort by team (any team), filter out matches already recorded against other teams already collected. If you don't have a coach's permission, don't reveal his name (PM me, if you want; it's not like the data isn't public). Do this for yourself first. In FUMBBL, this means clicking "Show Matches" and scanning down the list by race, pulling up match reports when the opponent qualifies.

2) Format: It doesn't matter which team you list first: they're all going into the data pool. I suggest using home/away as normal. List them as follows, for each team: (Outcome, Score, Cas, Blocks). Include number of turns after blocks with a C to indicate a concession after that many turns. So, a match might be recorded:
(L, 1, 3, 49); (W, 2, 0, 37)

Example: me, in 16 qualifying FUMBBL matches so far.
(L, 0, 0, 75); (W, 1, 3, 38)
(W, 0, 2, 27, C5); (L, 0, 0, 10, C4)
(W, 2, 1, 47); (L, 0, 2, 39)
(T, 1, 2, 79); (T, 1, 2, 34)
(L, 1, 3, 67); (W, 2, 0, 38)
(W, 1, 2, 60); (L, 0, 1, 35)
(W, 2, 3, 31); (L, 0, 2, 45)
(L, 0, 3, 40); (W, 2, 5, 54)
(L, 1, 1, 75); (W, 3, 2, 50)
(W, 1, 3, 69); (L, 0, 1, 51)
(W, 1, 1, 92); (L, 0, 2, 56)
(W, 1, 3, 68); (L, 0, 0, 26)
(W, 2, 1, 52); (L, 0, 0, 34)
(W, 1, 3, 41); (L, 0, 3, 52)
(T, 1, 2, 63); (T, 1, 1, 41)
(L, 0, 2, 57); (W, 1, 1, 59)

[dode74]

BBManager would help you here. It'd still be somewhat mandraulic, but faster than looking through the Cyanide UI.

Counting blocks is what will take time. I have full stats for 19858 games from FOL where everything but the number of blocks thrown is recorded.

[mattgslater]

Ah. FUMBBL does it for you.

[purdindas]

Are you of the same opinion as me Matt? I think FUMBBL is excessively brutal. I got fred up with it after 3 of my beginner teams got destroyed after just one game.

[RandomOracle]

mattgslater: You should be able to automate this in FUMBBL by using the FUMBBL API. Probably a good idea to talk to koadah, who has a lot of experience using it.

purdindas: Sounds like you've had some bad luck. Besides, I don't really see any teams of yours that have been destroyed. It's not unreasonable to expect having to play with a few loners for a few games if you use an AV 7 team, but that doesn't mean you won't be competitive in the next game or that you can't get to more than 11 players later on.

[mattgslater]

Are you of the same opinion as me Matt? I think FUMBBL is excessively brutal. I got fred up with it after 3 of my beginner teams got destroyed after just one game.

Format drives composition. Blackbox is excessively brutal, because matching TV favors hyper-focused development. Ranked is less so, but how much less is hard to say.

In FUMBBL, I've played 9+ games with 3 teams, all teams I've played significantly in TT LRB6, against a narrower, slightly weaker, set of opposition (that is, all my TT guys could beat the snot out of Henekka, nobody in my home league is as good as Malmir, and I've definitely played in better TT groups).

My Orcs have played 18 games. Their record is a passable 9-3-6, they're doing a rather lame 2.11 Cas per match, and they're taking a too-heavy-for-comfort 1.28 Cas per match. I'm used to inflicting more like 4 and taking more like 0.8. in my 3rd-ed days; against my current home league, I tend to deal a little over 3 with a bash team and take about 0.5. Like always, turnover is early and manageable.

The low Cas rate, along with record, is attributable to opposition quality and heaviness: rather than a scheduled round-robin league where you see everything, 14 of their 18 games have been against heavy (or heavy-ish, no lighter than Necromantic) teams, with the other four being vs Vampires and three DE teams, all with well-regarded coaches (especially PeteW and Joemanji; I'm not putting Hitonagashi on their level, but he's solid). The too-high Cas vs. rate is somewhat explained by that same heavy opposition mix (got slaughtered by a Nurgle team; can happen to anybody) and a bizarre Cas-to-AV-roll distribution in the first few games. It seems to have evened out: their last 6 games were against Nurgle, Dwarf x2, Necro, CD, and DE, and the combined Cas were 11:4, pretty much in line with what I'd expect to deal vs. that opposition.

My High Elves have behaved pretty normally in their first 15 games, dealing 2 Cas per game and taking 2.13 against 8 lighter teams (up to Humans) and 7 heavier teams (starting w/Lizardmen and Necro). That's pretty much par for the course, going along nicely with the 10-2-3 win record, more or less what I'd expect to have right now against a good opposition mix. They've managed replacements okay, and after 15 games have 11 skilled players on a 12-man team with 140k in the bank.

My Undead have faced almost exclusively light opposition, with only one match against a heavy team. This wasn't by design; I think that the early games are by chance (I wanted a rematch against the Ultimate Mr. Men and this was my team at the level, for example), and the late games are a consequence of people wanting to face the Undead rather than the scarier Orcs or more challenging HE. They've dealt 28 Cas (3.11/game) and taken 14 (1.56/game). The only problem they've had is keeping Wights alive long enough to get skills, and not getting doubles or stats every time I'm about to take Sure Hands on a Ghoul.

So, nah. Ranked is not any (or not much) killier than my overall TT experience.

[koadah]

Dunno if these help at all. I haven't stored info on blocks.
And the big thing that seems to be missing from Fumbbl stats is KOs

http://fumbbl.com/index.php?name=PNphpB ... ic&t=20550

http://www.cmanu.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/b ... sprintId=6

http://www.cmanu.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/b ... sprintId=7

http://www.cmanu.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/b ... printId=10

http://www.cmanu.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/b ... printId=11

[mattgslater]

Does it track AV breaks?

Frankly, though, I'd be happy with just a few stats for each match: race, score, # blocks for both races, plus division.

[dode74]

I can do anything but #blocks. AV breaks is down as "tackles" I believe. Race, score etc are available. Tell me what you want and I can send you it.

[mattgslater]

I can do anything but #blocks. AV breaks is down as "tackles" I believe. Race, score etc are available. Tell me what you want and I can send you it.

Really? That surprises me, because blocks are recorded in match reports.

[dode74]

Not on the server dumps I've got though. I might be getting something more some time, but I can't be certain.

What I get is:
ID iLeagueId strLeagueName dateEvent strTeamHomeName idTeamHome idCoachHome strCoachHomeName idRaceHome iValueHome strTeamAwayName idTeamAway idCoachAway strCoachAwayName idRaceAway iValueAway idMatchEndStatus bRanked bChallenge Away_iScore Away_iReward Away_iCashEarned Away_iCashEarnedBeforeConscede Away_iNbSpectators Away_iPossessionBall Away_Occupation_iOwn Away_Occupation_iTheir Away_iMVP Away_Inflicted_iPasses Away_Inflicted_iCatches Away_Inflicted_iInterceptions Away_Inflicted_iTouchdowns Away_Inflicted_iCasualties Away_Inflicted_iTackles Away_Inflicted_iKO Away_Inflicted_iInjuries Away_Inflicted_iDead Away_Inflicted_iMetersRunning Away_Inflicted_iMetersPassing Away_Sustained_iPasses Away_Sustained_iCatches Away_Sustained_iInterceptions Away_Sustained_iTouchdowns Away_Sustained_iCasualties Away_Sustained_iTackles Away_Sustained_iKO Away_Sustained_iInjuries Away_Sustained_iDead Away_Sustained_iMetersRunning Away_Sustained_iMetersPassing Away_iMetersRunning Away_iMetersPassing Home_iScore Home_iReward Home_iCashEarned Home_iCashEarnedBeforeConscede Home_iNbSpectators Home_iPossessionBall Home_Occupation_iOwn Home_Occupation_iTheir Home_iMVP Home_Inflicted_iPasses Home_Inflicted_iCatches Home_Inflicted_iInterceptions Home_Inflicted_iTouchdowns Home_Inflicted_iCasualties Home_Inflicted_iTackles Home_Inflicted_iKO Home_Inflicted_iInjuries Home_Inflicted_iDead Home_Inflicted_iMetersRunning Home_Inflicted_iMetersPassing Home_Sustained_iPasses Home_Sustained_iCatches Home_Sustained_iInterceptions Home_Sustained_iTouchdowns Home_Sustained_iCasualties Home_Sustained_iTackles Home_Sustained_iKO Home_Sustained_iInjuries Home_Sustained_iDead Home_Sustained_iMetersRunning Home_Sustained_iMetersPassing Home_iMetersRunning Home_iMetersPassing iSpectators iRating

[koadah]

Dode is looking at Cyanide I am looking at Fumbbl.

I am updating to get the blocks. Just need to test it. No sign of KOs though.

[koadah]

Are you of the same opinion as me Matt? I think FUMBBL is excessively brutal. I got fred up with it after 3 of my beginner teams got destroyed after just one game.

You got done over by zero skill chaos. That's just bad luck. Normally my no tree flings don't take that much damage.

[purdindas]

I've lost a player to death in the first game with my last 3 rookie teams. Thats all I'm saying. fummbl hates me I think. I much prefer TT. I'm interested to see the overall results of this investigation.

[mattgslater]

Purdie, that's three teams over one game each. It's easy to attribute that to sampling error.