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 Post subject: 'Tiers', win rates, & Chaos/Nurgle
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 3:31 pm 
Star Player
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Hi all,

Sorry if this has been posted before. Whenever I try to use the search function above it errors out on me.

Recently I took a look at this fascinating resource that compiles all the wins, draws and losses for each of the teams over many thousands of games. It's very interesting, and I heartily recommend giving it a look:

LRB6 version

All LRB versions

(I'll just be using the LRB 6 stats)

Many tournaments use a tiering system to balance the game, ie to give those teams that have trouble winnings games an extra boost to level the playing field.

It goes without saying that some teams belong at the bottom of the tiering pile, those teams being Ogres, Goblins and Halfings. What I'm interested to see though, is that others will include Vampires and Underworld teams, which people mostly have no problem with. The reason this is interesting is that both Underworld and Vampires have higher win rates than Chaos and Nurgles Rotters.

Nurgle teams will win on average 33% of the time, draw 24% of the time and lose 43% of the time. With Chaos teams it's even worse, with a measly 34% win rate, 21% draw rate and 45% loss rate.

Compare this to Underworld with a win rate of 39%, draw of 20% and a loss rate of 45%, and Vampires with a 35% win rate, a 21% draw rate and a 44% loss rate.

For easy reference:

| W.36%| D.20%| L.45%| Vampires
| W.35%| D.21%| L.44%| Underworld
| W.33%| D.24%| L.43%| Nurgle's Rotters
| W.34%| D.21%| L.45%| Chaos

---

Now, I think there might be a few reasons for this, but I don't know how valid they are.

1. Lower tiered teams get more skills, which give Underworld and Vampire teams the edge to excel over the Chaos teams. This holds a certain amount of water, but it all depends on the amount of tournaments that use tiering, and which percentage of those consider V&U to be tier three teams. The overall number is probably quite low...
2. Based on the Swiss system, teams that do badly will play other teams that do badly, so Vamps and Underworld would likely lose their first game, then get paired against another lower tier team, perhaps stunty, and get the win. But again, does this hold water?

Of all the games played, how many are against other 'tier three' teams?
Underworld
Ogres 2.8%
Halflings 4.1%
Goblins 3.8%
total = 10.7%

Vampires
Ogres 3.2%
Halflings 2.7%
Goblins 4.0%
total = 9.9%

Nurgle
Ogres 3.0%
Halflings 3.1%
Goblins 3.6%
total = 9.6%

Chaos
Ogres 2.8%
Halflings 2.9%
Goblins 3.5%
total = 9.1%

With 24 different teams, playing against any team should be about a 4%, if all teams were distributed evenly (which they're not, granted!). So, let's look at overall percentages of these teams.

Of any given game at any given tournament, what are the chance of playing the following teams?
Ogres: 4.2%
Halflings: 4.9%
Goblins: 6.2%

So comparing the stats, Chaos and Nurgle don't get the 'easy wins' that playing Stunties provides more than any other team. This could suggest that they're slightly better than the V&U teams, though as I said earlier, it's hard to say.

Now, I'm not saying Nurgle and Chaos are bad teams, especially in long term leagues. It's just tournaments where they apparently suffer.

I wonder whether, if a TO were inclined to include tiering, and if they were also inclined to consider Vamps and Underworld a Tier Three team, whether they might consider Chaos and Nurgle's Rotters to be Tier Three team, as to me it seems odd to give buffs to teams that are, on paper, better than other teams, while leaving these other teams to fend for themselves. This might give them an extra edge that they apparently need!

This won't make a difference to many tourneys, but it would to some. The World Cup, for example, considered Chaos and Nurgle Tier Two, while Vampires and Underworld Tier Three. The difference would mean C&N would have been able to take Bribes, Halfling Master Chef and Star Players. Other tournaments might give them an extra skill or two.

What does everyone think?

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 Post subject: Re: 'Tiers', win rates, & Chaos/Nurgle
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 5:25 pm 
Super Star
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Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:05 pm
Posts: 766
keep in mind, chaos (& nurgle) might suffer the same syndrome as the orcs (ie: win ration might be down because many average coachs or even noobs play this roster)
when vampires and underworld are known as very challenging rosters, so win ratio might be up, because many strong coachs are playing them.


Then vampire & underworld will definitly win more (than chaos/nurgle) getting access to starplayers
and Chaos/nurgle will definitly win more (than those 2 rosters) getting more skills.
so, depending of the ruleset, it could make sense that c&n stay tiers2, when vampires & UW are tiers3...


we start to see more & more rulesets with more than 3 tiers.
for example, when 4 tiers-rulesets, those 4 rosters are in the same tiers, the 3rd one (together with khemris, slann, ...)

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 Post subject: Re: 'Tiers', win rates, & Chaos/Nurgle
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 5:31 pm 
Star Player
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Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 10:29 pm
Posts: 570
babass wrote:
keep in mind, chaos (& nurgle) might suffer the same syndrome as the orcs (ie: win ration might be down because many average coachs or even noobs play this roster)
when vampires and underworld are known as very challenging rosters, so win ratio might be up, because many strong coachs are playing them.

That's a good point, and you're probably right. Especially with Chaos, I can't see too many newbies having a go at the Nurgle roster though!

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