EXP system replacing LRB Aging and MVPs

[GalakStarscraper]

Galak, do you have a program you are using to run these numbers? Can I get a copy?

Old fashioned hard work with a spreadsheet sorry.

I would like to see numbers run with the following conditions (on the team I showed earlier):
After a player reaches their 6th EXP, any subsequent rolls of 1 for the EXP roll requires a possible aging roll. (Note, no secondary roll)

Ageing roll:
2-6: No Effect:
7-8: Niggle
9: AV -1
10: MA -1
11: AG -1
12: ST -1

Zarg: Rolls: Games 12, 15, 18; Rolls: 10, 4, 6; Aging -1 MA
Pow: Rolls: Game 21: Roll 10; Aging -1 MA
Zam: Rolls: Game 11, 16, 26; Rolls 8, 7, 6: Aging: 2 Niggles
Smash: Rolls: Game 14 and 22; Rolls 7 and 8; Aging: 2 Niggles
Bash: Rolls: Games 13, 14, 15, 23, 25; Rolls 8, 6, 6, 3, 5; Aging: 1 Niggle
Warrior: Rolls: Games 12 and 14; Rolls: 4 and 8; Aging: 1 Niggle
Smug: Rolls: Games 19, 20, 25; Rolls: 6, 7, and 3; Aging: 1 Niggle
Bug: Rolls: Games 24 and 25; Rolls: 12 and 7; Aging: -1 ST and Niggle
Thug: Rolls: Games 19, 20, 21; Rolls: 5, 11, 8; Aging: -1 AG and Niggle

A much harsher system than the one the age on a 1 or 2 following a 1.

And Lucien, you say you are seeing all these leagues not using aging. The reason I hear them not using aging is because they run shorter season or they don't like it being tied to skill rolls. This solves both problems with the long term management included (assuming the 1 then 1-2 system). No tied to skill rolls and it doesn't effect teams until 15 games and then on your average player it will only effect them ONE time in 33 games ... (1 niggle earned from an Aging system is probably less than a normal positional player could expect from the current aging system ... especially a scorer). Most players wouldn't consider that a large impact at all.

I REALLY BELIEVE that this is HONEY not vinegar. Its longer term management in an easy to use package that doesn't specifically target stars. I've coached a team where my best player racked up 131 SPPs in 13 games .. this aging system wouldn't have even STARTED to effect that player ... so why do you think this is still vinegar. I really don't understand this position.

Galak

[neoliminal]

Zarg: Rolls: Games 12, 15, 18; Rolls: 10, 4, 6; Aging -1 MA
Pow: Rolls: Game 21: Roll 10; Aging -1 MA
Zam: Rolls: Game 11, 16, 26; Rolls 8, 7, 6: Aging: 2 Niggles
Smash: Rolls: Game 14 and 22; Rolls 7 and 8; Aging: 2 Niggles
Bash: Rolls: Games 13, 14, 15, 23, 25; Rolls 8, 6, 6, 3, 5; Aging: 1 Niggle
Warrior: Rolls: Games 12 and 14; Rolls: 4 and 8; Aging: 1 Niggle
Smug: Rolls: Games 19, 20, 25; Rolls: 6, 7, and 3; Aging: 1 Niggle
Bug: Rolls: Games 24 and 25; Rolls: 12 and 7; Aging: -1 ST and Niggle
Thug: Rolls: Games 19, 20, 21; Rolls: 5, 11, 8; Aging: -1 AG and Niggle

A much harsher system than the one the age on a 1 or 2 following a 1.

Yes, and you finally get players that would be fired. Who would you replace on this team Galak? And when would you have replaced them? What games would you have replaced players after?

I would obviously replaced Bug after game 24, I might have replaced Pow after game game 21, but might not. He's got Guard and doesn't need to move THAT fast. Smash is too valuable to replace for a couple Niggles. I would have to think strongly about replacing Zarq after a -1 MV...

John -

[GalakStarscraper]

has anyone run the numbers on a 1-lingering injury 2/3-mng second roll yet?

On Neo's team:
Bug would have a Niggling Injury on game 25. This would have been the only permanent effect.

Zarg would have missed games 16 and 19
Zam would have missed games 12 and 17
Bash would have missed games 15, 24, and 26
Warrior would have missed game 13
Smug would have missed games 21 and 26
Thug would have missed game 20

So this would have meant:
Games 14, 18, 22, 23, 25 would have been played with full rosters.
Games 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 24, 26 had at least one player out.
Games 26 would have had two out total.

This isn't enough omph for me personally, but at least it gives you some ideas to compare.

Galak

[GalakStarscraper]

I've seen it and it looks like this:

Zarg: Rolls: Games 15, 18, 21; Rolls: 10, 4, 6; Aging -1 MA
Pow: Rolls: Game 21: Roll 10; Aging -1 MA
Zam: Rolls: Game 11, 16, 26; Rolls 8, 7, 6: Aging: 1 Niggle
Smash: Rolls: Game 14 and 22; Rolls 7 and 8; Aging: 1 Niggle
Bash: Rolls: Games 13, 14, 15, 23, 25; Rolls 8, 6, 6, 3, 5; Aging: 1 Niggle
Warrior: Rolls: Games 23 and 25; Rolls: 4 and 8; Aging: 1 Niggle
Smug: Rolls: Games 19, 20, 25; Rolls: 6, 7, and 3; Aging: No Effect
Bug: Rolls: Games 24 and 25; Rolls: 12 and 7; Aging: -1 ST
Thug: Rolls: Games 21, 22, 23; Rolls: 5, 11, 8; Aging: -1 AG and Niggle

John .... change 7 to MNG and you have results I could agree with.

So let's map it out then ... I updated the above quote by shifing the rolls to the actual game in the team's history rather than the player's history to see the effects and change the result of 7 to remove the Niggle.

So Effects with mapped out:
Game 11: Zam Niggles
Game 12: No effect
Game 13: Bash Niggles
Game 14: Smash will miss Game 15
Game 15: Zarg gets -1 MA
Game 16: Zam will miss Game 17
Game 17: No effect
Game 18: No effect
Game 19: No effect
Game 20: Smug will miss Game 21
Game 21: Pow gets -1 MA
Game 22: Smash Niggles, Thug gets -1 AG
Game 23: Thug gets a Niggle
Game 24: Bug get -1 ST
Game 25: Warrior Niggles, Bug would miss Game 26
Game 26: No effect

Now let's assume you use the Niggle on Half rolls that the MBBL is testing.

Zam would have 15 1st half rolls of which let's round down and say he'll fails 2. So that's mean he'll fail 2 2nd half rolls. So Zam would have missed 2 games and 2 second halves.

Bash would have missed 2 whole game and 2 second halves as well.

Smash, Thug, and Warrior ... 1 of these folks would have missed an entire game and 1 a second half.

So over 26 games the Net effect would be ... drum roll:
2 MA -1
1 AG -1
1 ST -1
and 11 1/2 games played with one player missing. (if we agree that 15 is the nice round number were the average player starts to age then that is almost exactly one missed player per a game since the team has had 11 games since the magic 15)

I agree with John's compromise offer then.

On an roll of 1 for EXP make one extra 2D6 roll.

2-6 No Effect
7 Miss Next Game
8 Niggle
9 -1 AV
10 -1 MA
11 -1 AG
12 -1 ST

This even meets Snots request to clean it up and keep it simple .... thoughts?

Galak

[GalakStarscraper]

Lucien I thought you'd like the MNG effect in there so I change JKL's 7 to MNG since 7 is the highest odds number, the above should be a good compromise position.

One of the things that I liked was that when I stepped out what was happening ... Game 26 had no effects which shows that its not hammering teams every game once they get experienced. Now granted you have several Niggle rolls to make, but no new effects got thrown in the kettle.

Galak

[Lucien Swift]

better than nothing

[neoliminal]

If it's not too hard, could you run the random numbers for this compromis system again and show the results? I'd like to see another "view" of the same team.

[GalakStarscraper]

If it's not too hard, could you run the random numbers for this compromis system again and show the results? I'd like to see another "view" of the same team.

Ran your team through again

Zarg, 6 at 14 games (game 17), aging rolls 8 at 22; Aging: Niggle (game 22)
Blur, 3 at 4 games (game 26)
Ram, 6 at 9 games, aging rolls 10 at 15, 9 at 16, 5 at 17; Aging: MA -1/AV -1 (Game 15 then 16)
Pow, 6 at 19 games, Aging rolls: 8 at 21, 2 at 22, 9 at 25; Aging: Niggle/AV -1 (Games 21 and 25)
Zam, 6 at 13 games, Aging rolls: 6s at 16, 20, 21; Aging: No Effect
Smash, 6 at 14 games, Aging rolls: 11 at 24; Aging: MA -1 (game 24)
Bash, 6 at 10 games, Aging rolls: 6 at 15, 10 at 22; Aging: MA -1 (game 22)
Crush, 6 at 15 games, Aging rolls: 5 at 16, 10 at 20, 4 at 21, 9 at 26; Aging: MA -1/AV -1 (Game 20 and 26)
Grunt, 6 at 8 games (game 17); Aging rolls: 7 at 21; Aging: No Effect (misses game 22)
Warrior, 15 games still at 5 EXP; Aging: No Effect
Smug, 6 at 12 games; 10 at 15, 4 at 24; Aging: MA -1 (game 15)
Bug, 26 games still at 5 EXP; Aging: No Effect
Thug, 6 at 19 games (game 21); Aging rolls: 7 at 23; Aging: No Effect (misses game 24)

Okay now some stats to think about:
This system had 21 aging rolls made ... VS ... skill based LRB system: 27 roll made for this team
10 failed permanent aging rolls ... VS ... not sure how many JKL has failed with this team under LRB.

Game Summary Timeline:
Game 1-14: No Effect
Game 15: Smug and Ram get MA -1
Game 16: Ram gets AV -1
Games 17-19: No Effect
Game 20: Crush gets MA -1
Game 21: Pow gets Niggle
Game 22: Grunt misses this game (aging); Zarg get Niggle; Bash get MA -1
Game 23: No Effect
Game 24: Thug misses this game (aging); Smash gets AG -1
Game 25: Pow gets AV -1
Game 26: Pow misses this game (Niggle); Crush gets AV -1

Total effects in 26 games:
3 AV -1
4 MA -1
1 AG -1
3 games total missed from aging or failed Niggles

JKL's 4 stars:
Ram 74 SPPs, 4 skills (1 away from 5): MA -1/AV -1
Zarg 61 SPPs, 4 skills: 1 Niggle
Smash 54 SPPs, 4 skills: MA -1
Zam 46 SPPs, 3 skills: No aging effect

Now other interesting stat to me ... who has managed to not age yet:

Zam 46 SPPs/26 games
Thug 33 SPPs/26 games
Warrior 25 SPPs/15 games
Grunt 14 SPPs/17 games
Blur 5 SPPs/4 games
Bug 4 SPPs/26 games

Finally assuming that Neo had not retired anyone who had earned an MVP, this team would have 130 SPPs in MVPs. Under the EXP system they would currently have 93 (37 less .. there's 7 points of TR cut right there).

I'll leave it up to the rest of you to dissect further. I could live with this system.

Thoughts?

Galak

[manusate]

Darkson, here´s the whole thing:

Code: Select all

1. Replace the MVP column with an EXP column. This represents the player's EXPerience rating. 
2. At the end of each match, roll a D6 for each player that was eligible to play. If the D6 roll is higher than the player's EXP total, then the player gains 1 EXP for playing the match. A roll of 6 always succeeds, and a roll of 1 always fails. 
3. Each EXP point is worth 1 SPP. 
4. After a player reaches their 6th EXP, any subsequent rolls of 1 for the EXP roll requires a possible aging roll.  Rolls of 6 still earn 1 EXP.

Ageing roll: 
2-6 No Effect 
7 Miss Next Game 
8 Niggle 
9 -1 AV 
10 -1 MA 
11 -1 AG 
12 -1 ST

[GalakStarscraper]

So do you still get EXP after the 6th point? I think you should since it retains the familiar 1&6 rule.

Yes, you still continue to earn EXP after the 6th point. You just need a 6 to do so.

Galak - have you dropped the automatic Pro on 6th EXP? I hope so, as I don't like the concept of teams getting better for free. Lets face it after 15 games teams are getting pretty good and don't need a further boost.

I think a lot of folks pretty much agreed. You don't need a whole team of Pro players after 15 games. That just further seperate the rookies from experienced teams by handing out an extra skill. I like Chet trying to give something before starting to take away. But this is over the top and was unnecessary.

Anyway I think I'm really starting to like the look of this.

Hands down this is the best total package change I've seen proposed in 2 years to solve a lot of problems. Chet's revamping of the kicking rules comes in 2nd but that's still experimental. This takes an existing system that a lot of players have problems with a works out almost all the bugs without having virtually any cons.

Oh Dave's post about comparing the current system with the old.

Under LRB 1.3, your odds of building your own 7 skill player (Morg or Griff) without aging is 3.6%. Under the system being recommened above, the odds of not aging for 3.6% is reached at game 49.4 of a player's career. In order to reach that 176 SPPs in 49.4 games, you'd need to earn 3.563 SPPs a game. I've seen a player reach 150 SPPs in 18 games in my BB career. I don't think that a growth rate of a little under 4 to have the same odds as the current system is too punative at all. The current league leader in casualties in the MBBL2 is a Khemri Mummy with 51 SPPs in 11 games so even a non-TD player can reach this type of average.

Now based on Dave's posts, if you look at JKL's team his leading player is pulling down 2.5 SPPs a game. Which means that his odds of producing a 7 skill no age player is 0.5%. A big change from the LRB 3.6%. However, several of us on TBB (and the BBRC members I talked to) wanted to bump the aging table a little bit. This in effect achieves that bump for most teams while at the same time solving a lot of other issues. In fact with this system, you wouldn't probably need to bump the Niggle effect either to rolling before every half as the MBBL is testing for the aging bump. You could leave that rule alone.

I like the plan very much and hope to see it as experimental rules in BB Mag for issue #5 or as part of the October Rules Review release.

Galak

[Marcus]

I can live with the compromise numbers suggested. The data you presented seems to suggest good results.

[GalakStarscraper]

Actually to put this in another prespective. Under this system the average player will not receive his first permanent effect from this aging system until he's played 22 games.

This is just the type of aging system the game needed. It applies aging only where its needed .... long term leagues.

Galak

[GalakStarscraper]

Just a quick comment.

At one point I said this was Manu's idea ... sorry about that ... this was Marcus's idea.

Actually the final version everyone seems to be on board with for now started with Marcus's idea and then got tweaked with input from Acerak, Manu, Neo, Lucien, and myself .... definitely a team effort ....

Like I said ... I'm looking forward to this being official in the next October review (2003) ... if I can request early Christmas present for next year.

Galak

[GalakStarscraper]

The other thread was having problems with the last page being lost so I split the thread out to reset it.

It was pointed out to me via email by Chet that high rolls should not be bad things so a slight redo to the table might be in order. Also if we add in MNG to any effect what happens

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1. Replace the MVP column with an EXP column. This represents the player's EXPerience rating. 
2. At the end of each match, roll a D6 for each player that was eligible to play. If the D6 roll is higher than the player's EXP total, then the player gains 1 EXP for playing the match. A roll of 6 always succeeds, and a roll of 1 always fails. 
3. Each EXP point is worth 1 SPP. 
4. After a player reaches their 6th EXP, any subsequent rolls of 1 for the EXP roll requires a possible aging roll.  Rolls of 6 still earn 1 EXP.

Ageing roll: 
2 ST -1 and Miss Next Game
3 AG -1 and Miss Next Game
4 MA -1 and Miss Next Game
5 AV -1 and Miss Next Game
6 Niggle and Miss Next Game
7 Miss Next Game
8-12 Tweak (players is feeling his age, but recovers in time for the next game)

This isn't a real dramatic increase. In the next post I'll map out the effect to Neo's team with the 2 test runs.

Galak

[Grumbledook]

so this is basically replacing the mvp and aging rolls, but u have to do it every match rather then when a player gains a skill correct?