Register    Login    Forum    FAQ

Board index » Community Discussion » Tournament Postings » NAF Blood Bowl World Cup




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 39 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:34 pm 
Super Star
Super Star

Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:05 pm
Posts: 766
do we have statistics showing how many coachs will attend at this WC their first Naf-Tourney ever? and more generaly, the naf-experiences of the participants?

_________________
Image


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:54 pm 
Super Star
Super Star

Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 10:38 am
Posts: 915
babass wrote:
do we have statistics showing how many coachs will attend at this WC their first Naf-Tourney ever? and more generaly, the naf-experiences of the participants?


There are 81 coaches playing races for which they have a 150 ranking, but that only means that they have never played a NAF tournament with that race. I guess somebody could look up how many games players have played overall, but that's more complicated to read from the NAF rankings site.

_________________
"It's 2+ and I have a reroll. Chill out. I've got this!"
Image


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:42 pm 
Ex-Mega Star, now just a Super Star
Ex-Mega Star, now just a Super Star
User avatar

Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 11:10 am
Posts: 1662
Location: Bristol, UK
It's never as easy as you think I have a rating of 150*... and played 9 games with Undead :wink:

*its actually 150.24 but what's a decimal place between friends

_________________
Time flies like an arrow, Fruit flies like a banana.
Image


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:20 pm 
Rookie
Rookie

Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:17 pm
Posts: 1
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Correlation between expected rank and rank is 0.7

Blood Bowl is 70% skill and 30% luck? :D


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:07 pm 
Kommissar Enthusiasmoff
User avatar

Joined: Mon May 08, 2006 11:24 am
Posts: 5373
Location: Swindon, England
In a Scatter diagram! http://www.thenaf.net/2015/11/do-rankings-work/


You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

_________________
NAF President
Founder of SAWBBL, Swindon and Wiltshire's BB League @ sawbbl.uk
Image


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:31 pm 
Super Star
Super Star

Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 10:38 am
Posts: 915
I think a scatter chart based on final position might be misleading, just because the middle 60% or so is just so tight.

Image
Right in the middle, in 76th place out of 152, is the ironically named team Half n Half.

One win more puts them at 28.5 points, the same as No Lucca Tall in 50th place.

One win less puts them at 26.5 points, the same as Stockbowl Old Ones in 91st place.

It doesn't matter how good you are, there's always that one game which you lost because you rolled double skulls, or won when your opponent rolled snake eyes in your end zone. Tiebreakers are still involved of course, but there really isn't all that much difference teams in the middle. A prediction which puts a team in that area would still be a pretty good prediction, even if the final position was off by 40 places.

(edited after being reminded that team ranking gives one point per win. I stand by my point though)

_________________
"It's 2+ and I have a reroll. Chill out. I've got this!"
Image


Last edited by rolo on Thu Nov 12, 2015 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:46 am 
Super Star
Super Star

Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 10:38 am
Posts: 915
So, assuming corrections have now gone through, here are the new Team rankings, Post-world cup!

Code:
Team, Rating
Team Waterbowl, 1459.67
Masters of Tilea, 1435.77
Latino Lovers, 1267.63
Joe le taxi, 1254.09
Pilous, 1250.5
Socks' 2, 1226.41
American Football Conference, 1224.92
Geordie Juggernaut., 1212.69
Team Hellhound, 1211.37
Azian's Champions, 1205.62
Lutece Noobz, 1197.11
Spartak Avalanche, 1188.72
The Holy Six, 1184.86
Los ayudantes de Santa Claws, 1179.62
Turone Bashlords, 1156.1
Tana dei Bidoni, 1148.62
Predatori Firenze, 1124.96
Massacreurs Turons, 1122.15
Swedish Blood Bowl Alliance, 1119.24
The Linemen, 1116.75
Azes Tech, 1115.83
Team NRW, 1114.54
TBBL, 1109.4
Legio II Italica, 1100.3
Team CBBA, 1099.52
Mas Galactikos, 1096.24
Unqualified, 1092.7
Jodidos Fumbleros, 1090.8
Luccini, 1088.62
Wild Team Chimera, 1086.66
Blockparty, 1082.46
SPIKE! Crusaders, 1075.49
Evolution, 1068.52
LSR Pontebragas, 1067.23
GOLEADORES DA ESTRADINHA, 1062.39
ECBBL Blackshirts, 1055.28
Blocktors Without Borders, 1049.17
Team Wales, 1048.44
Swiss Ouroboros, 1047.02
Norway, 1045.36
CMMF, 1041.72
Six Pistols, 1036.81
Mongrel Horde, 1036.41
Catenaccio Forever, 1035.98
Team Grand Est, 1032.26
Team Bubble, 1031.08
SantaKO Total Team, 1029.71
Parabellum Joker, 1029.52
Elder Skelter, 1021.86
Team Rodents, 1016.89
Olympique Pilous, 1015.65
A - Team, 1013.56
Blueyard Carnage Crew, 1012.27
Team Baguette, 1010.7
Da Bolkon Trolls, 1004.66
Les Experts Lutèce, 1000.78
AINPACTE, 995.47
KILL BBIL, 993.81
Kick'Azes, 992.9
Team Canada, 991.39
Total Reroll, 983.58
Colonials, 982.68
Les Déchus, 982.14
BRIGANTI, 980.24
2nd Edition, 980.04
No Lucca Tall, 977.16
DARTH FUMBBLERS, 976.29
Les Pilounours, 974.47
Kurpfalz Crew, 973.78
Stockbowl Old Ones, 969.48
Lion Rampant, 968.96
Legio V Urbana, 968.64
Team ANZAC, 966.05
LSR Mariconettis, 965.65
Bilbali Blood Bowl In Darkness, 961.82
Los Favoritos, 961.02
Hòkulo Skool, 956.42
L'Altra Parte A, 954.27
Minotarri, 952.77
Half ´n´ Half, 952.19
Hampshire Superhogs, 950.4
Team TRAUMA, 946.46
The Arverngers, 944.64
Villaverde Alto, 944.15
Saltire, 944.08
Raffazzonato Drunk Team, 940.01
I Mazzuolatori Apuani, 939.64
Tassi Del Miele, 938.3
Budapest Ravens, 936.53
Polenta e Cannonau, 936.01
Bärfurt, 935.88
Blodge This!, 932.42
Biroldo Royal, 930.79
Austria - Mulikuh not Kangaroo, 925.43
Spartakulés, 924.34
Carini & Coccolosi, 924.2
Old Mumblers Company, 923.29
Globetrotters, 920.07
UCL, 916.23
Team Wombat, 911.36
BUBBA UK, 908.88
Black Thunder BBF, 906.72
F.B.B.F. - Fulginium Blood Bowl Federation, 905.45
Team BN Cabalvision, 903.09
Marenostrum Team, 901.49
Stars & Spite, 900.6
Spanish Bastards, 900.26
Titty Boys Parma, 899.13
NTeam North Sea, 898.76
Si Vis Vinci Parabellum, 897.37
Big Guys, 897.22
Texani, 896.63
Hell-O-Wien, 893.37
Zero Class, 889.42
Mediolanum Warlords, 882.28
BB4Fun, 881.76
Ekipo Averno Blood-Bowl, 877.31
Les Lemovices, 869.75
Socks' 1, 869.16
Vesunna, 862
Bababoys, 861.87
Team Exiles, 861.13
Malpas Goats of Arioch, 853.66
VICTIMS, 853.32
The Dirty (Half) Dozen, 849.76
NEUSTRIA, 849.23
Euskal Turnover, 844.72
Villaverde Bajo, 842.88
Luccini Old Style, 841.22
DopoLavoroPredatori, 839.89
Predatori Indomiti, 838.02
Papies Rhône Alpins, 837.71
Northwestern Barbarians, 836.09
BUBBLE-2, 834.09
Gavilan Pollero, 831.28
Fun factor Zento, 821.9
Desperados, 812.21
grand est team Z, 807.7
I Cavalieri dell'Altoforno, 805.58
Team SlowPlay, 804.02
Guardiani del Blood Bowl, 796.12
Danish Dynamite, 794.57
Brigata Muratella, 794.52
Team Z - L'Altraparte, 788.72
Luridi Ludici, 785.2
Hungarian Blooderhood, 777.16
Jackals Blood Bowl Team, 772.23
Hakkaa Päälle!, 768.61
Grand Est Maxi Best Of, 752.94
Team Chaos, 726.4
Beppe's Barbarians, 693.99
Discepoli del Signore della Notte, 677.77


The biggest gainers were "Azes Tech", who gained 156.69 points of rating to go from 959.14 to 1115.83, which is pretty amazing. The next biggest change was "The Linemen", who gained 100.3 points, going from 1016.45 to 1116.75.

I have attached a .csv file with pre, post, and delta ratings for anyone who's interested.

Q: How did you account for no-shows and replacement players?
A: I didn't. My script essentially goes through the list of players on each team, looks up their rating, and adds it up. If you didn't show up, your rating didn't change (although presumably your teammates made fun of you all weekend).

Q: ELO ratings like this are supposed to be zero-sum, why don't the two columns add up to the same total?
A: See above. If a game was played with the replacement player, that game affects the replacement's rating. But I only look up the ratings for the original team members, before and after.

Q: "Masters of Tilea" won, why aren't they ranked number one? And why did other teams improve more than they did?
A: That's just how ELO works. You gain rating when you win, based on the rating difference between you and your opponent. Beat someone ranked much higher than you, gain a lot. Beat someone ranked lower than you, you gain only a little. When you're already ranked really high, it's difficult to get higher because you get so little for each win, and lose a lot for every loss or even a tie.

Q: You are an idiot, my team should be ranked higher because (subjective reason)!
A: This isn't me, all I'm doing is addition. And really, I'm not even doing that, I'm just telling my computer to add for me. ELO ranking is deterministic. Don't blame me, blame your dice ;)

Q: What happened to "Ambush3"? His absence left Waterbowl, the pre-tournament favorites, playing with a mercenary all tournament!
A: No idea, but I bet that's a story and a half if anyone knows!


You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

_________________
"It's 2+ and I have a reroll. Chill out. I've got this!"
Image


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 7:16 pm 
Experienced
Experienced

Joined: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:52 am
Posts: 92
Location: Norway
rolo wrote:
I think a scatter chart based on final position might be misleading, just because the middle 60% or so is just so tight.

[

Right in the middle, in 76th place out of 152, is the ironically named team Half n Half.

One win more puts them at 30.5 points, the same as Team Bubble in 24th place.

One win less puts them at 24.5 points, the same as Luccini Old Style in 120th place.



Is this correct. In the team competition a win was only 1 point, so to move up to 24th place they would need 3 wins more.


Top 
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Lucca World Cup Round 1 Preview
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 10:20 pm 
Super Star
Super Star

Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 10:38 am
Posts: 915
zulu wrote:
Is this correct. In the team competition a win was only 1 point, so to move up to 24th place they would need 3 wins more.


Well crap. You are correct. I'll update my graphic.

_________________
"It's 2+ and I have a reroll. Chill out. I've got this!"
Image


Top 
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
 
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 39 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3

Board index » Community Discussion » Tournament Postings » NAF Blood Bowl World Cup


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users

 
 

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to: