NAF Rankings - ELO and Tiers
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 12:50 pm
DISCLAIMER: Ok, this is a speculative post based on idle wonderings rather than hard evidence based maths. Hopefully we'll get a page of decent replies before it descends into people shouting at each other about statistics and who's qualified to say what.
Right, so the NAF rankings are based on ELO (tactically ignoring Glicko because I don't knowhow that works). ELO works by comparing each coach's ranking and predicting the outcome. The change to each player is weighted by how unexpected the outcome was (so a rubbish coach beating a grand master would get a lot of points, a grand master beating a rubbish coach gets few points).
That's how it works in Chess but Blood Bowl has, by design, more variety than chess. We all know that Goblins vs Wood Elves is not an even match irrespective of who the coaches are.
So, should the NAF ELO formula take this into account? There's enough data to have some confidence about what win rates each possible matchup has (right?) so could we use that to modify the ELO formula?
Right, so the NAF rankings are based on ELO (tactically ignoring Glicko because I don't knowhow that works). ELO works by comparing each coach's ranking and predicting the outcome. The change to each player is weighted by how unexpected the outcome was (so a rubbish coach beating a grand master would get a lot of points, a grand master beating a rubbish coach gets few points).
That's how it works in Chess but Blood Bowl has, by design, more variety than chess. We all know that Goblins vs Wood Elves is not an even match irrespective of who the coaches are.
So, should the NAF ELO formula take this into account? There's enough data to have some confidence about what win rates each possible matchup has (right?) so could we use that to modify the ELO formula?