Talk Fantasy Football

My TT group needs a cool-down period, but I'm still itching for BB. So I went onto FUMBBL a couple days ago, and played a pretty good game against a newer opponent, showed him the ropes, got my team healthy, got really close to a new round of skill-ups. Here's where I'm at...

http://fumbbl.com/FUMBBL.php?page=team& ... _id=647242

1) I'm getting close to the level where I'll start seeing lots of Clawpombs. It's ranked, so most killer teams keep it to just a couple guys rather than going crazy like they do in the Box, but there's lots of it anyway. My strategy for coping with it is to present an impenetrable front with such an insane amount of Guard/Block/MB/SS/ST that there's little hope for a positive resolution in any kind of blocking war. Against bash teams, I fully intend to average 75 blocks per match. My plan is to build right up to the SE threshold and stay there with cuts.

I had resolved before the last game to cut my #2 Thrower, but he was actually really useful in that game, and reviewing my previous games a lot of the problems I'd been having with my #2 Thrower were just crazy distribution, like bad Cas ratios against, and a horrific but not repeatable 2-for-7 rate on QPs. None of that is predictable, and sure enough, he had a great game this week. The Troll was another option to cut, as he hasn't been earning SPPs. But he's just so... so... useful. And when he does improve, he'll make the team better. The #2 lino is an option, but he's got 3 SPP already, and if he skills he'll be a good rotational player. I kept the extra TRR because it's Ranked and I can pick/choose a little for the next match. What I think I'm going to do is, when I hit SE 10k, I'll cut a TRR or a player. If a Lino or Thrower dies, I won't replace him. When I can no longer stay under 1.9M, even with 12 men and 3 TRRs, I'll hire 3 Gobs to stand on the LOS against the most homicidal opposition, so really I have two D-lines on a 15-man squad.

2) I know what skills I want to build for, but I'm not exactly sure where I want to put them and how. I used all my toolbox skills on Side Step and +MA; I have no Tackle, no Frenzy, no Grab, and not enough positioning skills to fake it without them. But who gets what?

My plan:
Throwers: Aarkhag is The Man. KOR/Block/Acc Thrower makes a huge difference. Next up: Fend, or Dodge on doubles, or whatever stats I can get my hands on. If the rookie, Blargmarkh, succeeds, he'll get Block, Leader, Fend. If he fails, he won't be replaced.

Blockers: All my Blockers have Block. Drognarkh has Guard and is about to skill again. MB, Grab, or Stand Firm? I lean to MB, but I'm really looking forward to getting a Grab guy. Fnorgrerm, who also has Guard, is not close to skilling, and his decision will be driven by situation and by Drognarkh. Either gets Side Step on doubles.

Crogthnakk has Side Step, and is a denial machine. He's had the good fortune of being an MVP hog, so he only needs 8 SPP. So many skills to pick... if I want him to skill again, I should get him MB, no? But he'd be such a fun target for Guard or Grab, and ST4/Fend/Block/SS basically says "don't block me!" Eshmrogrokhgrag just has Block, but he's only 6 SPP away. I'm tempted to give him Mighty Blow, but if nobody else is getting Grab....

Blitzers: Garkherl (#7) has SS, and will get Tackle next, then MB, then I'm torn between Pro and Fend. On doubles, Dodge makes him Super-Annoying-Man, but means I need to keep Tacklers off him. I have an answer for that, if I take the Goblin route; otherwise, would I be better off ignoring doubles at 16 and 31, and just taking the skill track?

The other 3 Blitzers all have MB already. Horkadakk (#8) and Irigiorg (#9; they're alphanumerical) are about to improve; #9 has Guard already. I'm thinking that Horkadakk gets Tackle and Irigjorg gets Stand Firm, or that Irigjorg gets Tackle and Horkadakk gets Guard. Jarromrolrg (#10) has +MA, and isn't close to skilling. I'm thinking Jarromrolrg will get Tackle if he skills before I get Tackle on 8 or 9 (so they can both go MB-G-SF), and otherwise, uhh, I'm not sure. He does it all... Piling On? Fend? Pro? Juggernaut? Frenzy? Guard? Stand Firm? Doubles on Horkadakk or Jarromrolrg becomes Jump Up; Irigiorg would take Dodge.

Linemen: I was thinking I'd get Frenzy for Mruagrokh, followed by Tackle. But if he skills quickly, it'll be Tackle, so I can focus on S skills for the Blitzers. In that case, he'll follow Tackle with Pro or Frenzy, dictated really by whether I have two Frenzy players by then. Mighty Blow on doubles; the key with this team is to maximize the upside of my natural overblocking tendencies by staying in position and getting top dollar for my knockdowns. Narnargmogh will get Wrestle, then Dirty Player, or may just get cut if he doesn't double for Dodge (should I go the Goblin route). If he gets Wrestle, and I keep him, and then he doubles, he gets Mighty Blow.

Troll: Karkagragraghkkh will be a Troll like any other: he shuts out routes and gets stuck into the action. Guard and SF are the only priorities. Block on doubles, Pro on second doubles. No stats, ever, not even +ST, except after two doubles.

So the questions are:

1) Who gets Tackle, besides Garkherl?
a) Horkadakk. Tackle can't wait.
b) Irigiorg. Horkadakk needs Guard.
c) Jarromrolrg. Tackle CAN wait... for the right player!
d) Mruagrokh. Wrackle it up!

2) Crogthnakk gets...
a) Guard. Can't have enough, and Block/SS/Guard/ST4 is a good combo.
b) Fend. You think he eats space NOW....
c) Grab. Shall we dance?
d) MB. Can't have enough, and could accelerate him into the next skill.
e) Frenzy. Rule them sidelines with an iron fist!

3) Who gets Grab?
a) Crogthnakk. 2c, above.
b) Drognarkh. He'll soon come off the LOS anyway.
c) Eshmrokghrag. Drognarkh is too valuable and needs MB to skill faster.

4) Narnargmogh skills. What to do?
a) Dirty Player, MB on doubles. Get full value for your extra body!
b) Block or Wrestle, MB on doubles. Make him useful.
c) Cut unless he doubles for Dodge or gets a stat. Get ready to clawproof the LOS.

Matt - have you considered dropping a RR? 4 looks like a lot if TV is an issue. If I were playing in an environment where TV matters a lot (sounds like you are) then I would even consider going with 2 RRs. Intermediate option is 2 RRs + Leader on the second Thrower.

If Clawpomb is an issue, then presumably getting 3 Block/Fend or Wrestle/Fend player for the LoS is a priority. Black Orcs may be quite suitable for this - it doesn't have to be just Linos.

Hope that helps.

Haven't run afoul of ClawPOMB too much yet, though there was that one game.... I just played another round, tied a game I really should have won, but for some weirdness. Irigiorg (Blitzer w/MB/Guard) got a Cas and improved with Tackle. I also got two Cas (and a skill) on the Troll, who now has Guard. I fired a TRR and am still at 1.7M. I really like having 3 TRRs. 4 is more than I need, but I used the last one about half the time. Still, TV management is starting to get important.

Now, I have a lot of guys near improvement.

On the precipice:
BOB w/Block, Guard, 30 (MB or Grab?)
Blitzer w/Side Step, 14 (Tackle)
Blitzer w/Mighty Blow, 15 (Guard)
Lineman, 3 (Wrestle)

Could happen suddenly:
Thrower, 1 (Block)
BOB w/Block, Side Step, 23 (Guard, Fend, Grab, or MB...?)
BOB w/Block, 10 (MB)
Blitzer w/MA7, Mighty Blow, 23 (Frenzy or PO)
Lineman w/Wrestle, 12 (Frenzy or Kick)

Not close:
Thrower w/Acc, KOR, Block, 36 (Fend)
BOB w/Block, Guard, 19 (Grab or MB)
Blitzer w/Mighty Blow, Guard, Tackle, 32 (Stand Firm)
Troll w/Guard, 6 (Stand Firm)

And who gets Grab? I think I've decided that the next skill for two or three BOBs is MB, and one gets Grab. My ground rules for taking Grab are: not on the guy with just Block; he gets Mighty Blow or Frenzy. Which way makes more sense?

The Block/Guard BOB who's about to improve. Get that Grab chain as fast as you can!
or,
The Side Step/Block BOB. SS/Grab is sick, but it competes with Guard and Fend as well as MB.
or,
The Block/Guard BOB who will go up last. The chain is gamebreaking, but after the first turn, Grab is only nifty, not worldbeating.

I want to get a lot of MB and a Grab guy both for the same reason: my defense is very good, but my offense is only dominant if I can trash the opponent. MB helps with that, while Grab does the same and also adds a dimension to my hurry-up.

I would want to give grab to a mb tackle to counter SS elves, so i guess you could give it to a blitzer or as a BOB's like 5th skil? (Block,MB,Guard,Tackle)

Just played a Chaos Dwarf team, won 2-0 in a gritty match (well, a gritty 12 turns, and then he just stayed down). Finally got a little room over .500, at 8-3-6. Whew. Horkadakk (Blitzer w/MB), Garkherl (Blitzer w/SS), and Blargmarkh (rookie Thrower) all skilled, and got +ST, Mighty Blow, and Dodge, respectively. 13 men, 1810k, 260k Treasury. Horkadakk will be on the menu as a Frenzy target, so the next to skill between the Blitzer w/MA7, MB, 25SPP and the Lineman w/Wrestle, 12 SPP, will get Tackle.

Here's what I'm debating:

a) Cut the 3SPP lino, hire two Gobs.
b) Hire two Gobs, stay at 1890k.
c) Do nothing.

I'm leaning toward C.

To Admins: can you move this to Team Blogs? That's really what it is, though I am seeking developmental advice, and also perhaps to begin a discussion on the stymie/slay style in practice.

Interesting factoids: I did some math on my team and how it's gone, and check this out.

1) I've on average thrown 61.8 blocks and taken 38.9 per match. In wins, it's about the same as in losses (62.5 v 42.8, 59 v.40.5). In ties, though, I've thrown a pretty normal 65.7 blocks but only allowed 26.3. Part of that is a game against Vampires, but the other two ties are against Nurgle and Dwarfs. I've thrown more blocks in relation to my opponent when the Cas have been equal (2.2 for every 1 I've taken) than when I've outcas'ed the opponent (1.64) or been outcas'ed (1.39). This is probably skewed by the fact that one of these games was against Joemanji, who doesn't block a lot.

2) What might be part of it is that I'm 9-2 on Casualties in my three tie games, while in wins I'm 15-9 and in losses I'm 13-12, even though my two games against light teams (both Dark Elves) were both losses.

3) I've played a lot of tough teams, but I've taken more Cas per block than I've inflicted. This seems strange, since at least 95% of my blocks are 2d or 3d, but I take 1d and half-die blocks all the time, and I've got good AV and lots of MB. It seems that my initial impressions about having bad Casualty luck were right: in the first twelve games, I played some softer opposition, but still took a Cas for every 22 blocks. In the last five games, I've played against higher AV and dealt proportionately less damage, but I've only taken one Cas for every 51 blocks. Probably another factor skewing the numbers down is my tendency to turn pushes into extra smacks.

4) I'm 4-0-2 when I block more than 50% more often than my opponent, but no more than twice as often. More than twice as many blocks, and I'm 1-3-1, and less than 1.5 times as many, and I'm 3-0-3. That's probably not a great sample, but it's probable that when I'm blocking a lot and it's not generating Cas, I'll probably get a tie. Strangely, when I block 1.5x to 2x as many times as my opponent, I have the worst block:Cas ratio, and when I block more than twice as many times, I have the best defensive ratio. The inverse (best block:Cas ratio, worst defensive block:Cas) has come in the games where I've taken more blocks than I've inflicted; those games were a mauling at the hands of a Nurgle team (more than 20% of all the Cas I've taken), and a Dwarf team that just surrendered and let me comp to my heart's content.

5) I'm 2-0-3 when I lose the Cas war. But check this out: in those 5 games, I've inflicted a Cas on one block out of 54.8, and taken a Cas on one block out of 16.9.

I have to say that is a lot of maths and statistics there. Is that what makes a good coach? If so I need to up my brainpower a bit! I'd like to play this team and maybe get some tips from Matt

Matt, have you got enough games to really draw any kind of reliable conclusion?

I like statcrunching too, but I don't usually start till I hit the 50 game mark with a team, as otherwise I haven't got a large enough sample set...

Hitonagashi wrote:Matt, have you got enough games to really draw any kind of reliable conclusion?

I like statcrunching too, but I don't usually start till I hit the 50 game mark with a team, as otherwise I haven't got a large enough sample set...

Definitely, sample size is a concern here. We certainly can't infer a normal distribution in game results. However, the way teams morph and twist, really only the last five or eight games have any value when it comes to drawing conclusions about your team.

At this point any "statistical analysis" will have to be primarily descriptive of what's already happened. For instance, taking one Cas every 22 blocks is just out of line with AV9 and high ST, so I think it's safe to conclude that my early troubles seem to have been caused by an outlier set of AV rolls against. As evidence, my Cas suffered rate has gone to 1/51 over the last 5 games, and I've started winning more. I wouldn't infer much from that if I didn't already know that Cas rate is one of the biggest variables in the game.

The first half of my game against Hitonagashi went pretty well. I'm up 1-0 at halftime, it's the bottom (H's) half of T1, and he's got 6 guys on the board. He kicked really deep, and got a bit lucky on the blitz. I haven't committed, and I'm out of blitzing range, but with a 2d blitz (for a pow, I'm afraid) and a 3+/2+ dodge and a whole bunch of 2+ rolls, he could run a screen on my Thrower. He's got some pretty wicked stuff going on:
Rookie Witch
Blitzer with MA8, ST4, AG5, Dodge, MB
Blitzer with Dodge
Lineman with MA7, Guard
2x Rookie Lineman

He's also got a lot of good players in the KO bin, including a MB witch and a D/SS/T Blitzer; only one Cas so far. The next few turns are critical; if I can deal two more Cas, or take out Superman, I can score quickly and try to run it up. If not, I have to hold on until T4 at least.

Who knows? My Thrower is almost alone in the backfield; I can surely blitz anybody off of him (he won't be able to form up), but fumbles are fumbles, and a crazy streak of rolls may have me heaving a Long or longer pass, or even having to dodge. I've already used my Apoth to keep Garkherl (!) on the field. He's my Bob Sanders; he changes the game until he gets hurt, and that changes the game yet again. There's not much mathematical reason for this: he takes more blocks than most of my guys, but he's AV9/Block; you'd think he'd have a healthy half from time to time. If I score again and nobody dies or statlosses, it's worth it.

Yep!

First half was going well till I turned off my brain, and instead of running a score in, went for a crowdsurf on a mv 7 MB blitzer with a WE without block. Wouldn't have been a shockingly bad decision, except I neglected to protect the ball carrier first(at all...) , and when the inevitable skull/bd rr skull/bd came, Matt put him down, grabbed the ball, and despite the efforts of Superman popping the ball from the cage 3 times in 3 turns(!), managed to run it in.

I think it's going to take some luck to get back into the game from here..as Matt says, next few turns are vital for me.

It's been a really fun game so far. So far, I've been thoroughly outpositioned

We'd probably be tied 1-1 or Hitonagashi'd be up 1-0, and would have another crack at that (disastrous) KO recovery roll, if only the Witch had just moved up for the Guard guy to blitz: 80/81 to TD, and would have done it on the first roll (the skull (both? doesn't matter) was on the Frenzy hit). But I knew better. It was too tempting. One player has Guard, the other has MB and Frenzy. There's surf potential. Why the heck not, you know?;]

You had to blitz to try, and then to block with the Lineman, meaning no score. You had nobody in a good position to protect, either; that would have been potentially a LOT of 5/6 and 8/9 rolls. In fact, the odds of a TD that turn fell from 80/81 (just do it) to 14/27 (the chance of getting a pow on either of two blocks when you really want a push on both). As it turns out, it went pretty much the almost-worst possible way; the Witch knocked herself out on the second roll.

You didn't TRR a pow, did you? It was all skulls and boths, right? Did you take a push over a pow on the first block?

There was another time like that, after I recovered. Not like the head-fake, but where he had a long string of easy things to do, and it looked sucky when something that was supposed to work didn't, but not so much when you do the big-picture math. Superman blitzed the ball free, and H's rookie Witch was in a Tackle Tz, and would have had step into two TZs to pick up, then GFI to 2+/2+ into the lear and either hope to survive or chuck a bomb with an interception attempt and no RR. But the 2+ ("unskilled") dodge didn't work, and the spectacular cagebreaks were for naught. Yup. His Witch Elves have generally played the Peyton Fahrquhar role in this game.

http://www.pagebypagebooks.com/Ambrose_ ... ek_Bridge/

S'okay. I left him two reasonable choices. This game is far from decided.

I hope H is being ironic when he says he's been thoroughly outpositioned. I mean, NOW I seem to have a positional advantage (pending the probable upcoming jailbreak), but it's been a pretty classical bash/speed contest, barring that one "sacrifice" play, which went better than it should have, and we'd normally be on track for a 2-1 grind.

I'm really regretting my lack of Frenzy, starting to wonder if I should give it to Jarromrolrg (Blitzer w MA7, MB, 28SPP) rather than giving him Tackle and waiting for Horkadakk (Blitzer w/ST4, MB, 16 or 17 or something) to improve; then, I can give Tackle to Horkadakk. I see a lot of ST4/Dodge anyway....

I'm also starting to regret playing like such a nice guy all the time. If he gives me any more trouble, I may start fouling. I haven't been, just because it's not my way, even when I've had Superman isolated and surrounded (to be fair, it's worked so far). But damn, that guy is annoying. (Superman, not Hitonagashi. H is a good coach who's just getting good use out of an unreal player.)

I've been wondering about that. I pretty much only ever foul tactically, and I don't like doing it even then, if I can build a credible alternative (like this drive, where he just had to roll way too many dice). I've got a Lineman with Wrestle and 12 SPP. My initial instinct was to see how fast I could skill him and get him either Frenzy or Tackle. But now I'm wondering if I might not be better off giving him Kick, and then trying to score with my rookie (3SPP) Lino, so he gets Dirty Player on a normal roll and I have a DP to field on offense, make me more prone to use him.

I've taken a new strategy with the Apothecary, using it early in a drive to stop KOs. I'm a little leery of this because my team is so evenly-developed, but I have plenty of cash, good AV, and a good supporting cash around the rookies. Right now, poor Fnorgrerm is set up to take the absolute worst that H can throw; 2d with Mighty Blow. That's 5/9 to knock down, with a TRR on a push if he's really committed to a jailbreak. That means about 7/400 to suffer something permanent, and pretty much 1% to die or get cut. That may not sound scary to you... but I'm hoping for a push RR'ed into a skull. Worked last time!

He took the bait, I drove downfield, scored after some silly gimmicks didn't work, gave him time to get on the board too, though I did make it hard... a minor mispositioning on Karkagragraghkkh led to the last TD. After a slow (4-2-6) start, my Orcs are now well into the black column, at 9-3-6.

Jarromrolrg got both TDs, and is now at 31. He rolled an 11, so of course I gave him +AG. 7/3/4/9 Block/MB!

That silly Witch who KO'ed herself trying to get Jarromrolrg off the pitch got Hitonagashi's TD, and rolled 6+4. So now she has MA8 and MB!

Ugh. My 10SPP BOB with Block got a -AV, apothed to the other -AV. My other three BOBs are all well ahead of him, and I've got a ST4 Blitzer. I'm going to play my next match without him, and while he heals up I'll figure out if and how I want to replace him. Not a big perpetual gamer: my league instincts say I should keep him (he's still better than a rook), but what say you FUMBBLers and other long-view coaches?