Passing for Pro's ^^

[Toby]

I plan to pick Diving Catch and Hail Marry as the 2 very first skills on my Human Team. Can someone explain me the 44% math thing once again?

I hope to deliver a couple of surprise plays with that. Also I like the idea of getting rid of a dropped ball near my own endzone, and if the catcher manages to sneak through it enables me to effective counter attacks.

I think most people are not aware of the high propability of sucess, but I doubt it myself, so maybe Galak finds this topic and crunches the numbers once again

[martynq]

OK, the guy with Hail Mary Pass will make a HMP provided you don't roll a 1. Assuming you give it to a thrower so he can use Pass to re-roll this, the probability of failure is 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36, so there is a 35/36 chance of getting the HMP away successfully.

The catcher can attempt to grab the ball provided it is about to land within one square of him. This takes a bit of careful analysis:

If the ball were to initially scatter diagonally (4 possible directions), there are then another 64 possible patterns of scatter, of which 29 scatter to adjacent squares (or to the original one).

If the ball were to initially scatter non-diagonally (4 possible directions), 31 of the possible patterns of scatter return the ball to an adjance square.

So of the 8 x 8 x 8 = 512 ways to scatter, I calculate that the number that return to a square why the Diving Catcher can catch it is:

4 x 29 + 4 x 31 = 240.

So (unless I've made a mistake, which is very possible with this sort of calculation) the chance of the ball returning to a square where it can be caught is

240/512 = 15/32

Finally, the Catcher with Diving Catch catches on a 3+ (with the Catch re-roll) so the probability of failure is 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/9, so the probability of success is 8/9.

So... the final probability of success is

35/36 x 15/32 x 8/9 = 175/432, or 40.5%.

That's my calculation, but as I said there could well be an error somewhere in the middle.

Martyn

[McDeth]

Or 59.5% chance of failure and a turnover.

[Mestari]

Those numbers seem to be right, at least my calculations give 240/512 too. Didn't check the multiplications, but I supposed they're right.

[DoubleSkulls]

I plan to pick Diving Catch and Hail Marry as the 2 very first skills on my Human Team. Can someone explain me the 44% math thing once again?

HMP is a deseparation ploy - if you've got 2 turns left you can score without it - with a much greater chance of success.

By taking other skills you will have a far more reliable offence in general. Accurate and block will mean you have a passing game that can actually work.

Some teams (Dwarves) really benefit from HMP as they can't move the ball quickly - and don't have a reliable passing game anyway.

[Toby]

Accurate and Block are sort of the normal thing.

I want to have the capability to score when I'm on defence, or to throw a impossible pass when the thrower is going to be blitzed in the next turn. Just throw the thing down the field and force everybody to turn around and run back the other way as my catchers and blitzers rush after the ball.

Dump & chase hockey tactic if you will.

[Mirascael]

Seems more like "Passing for Laymen" to me!

[DoubleSkulls]

Accurate and Block are sort of the normal thing.

For good reason - they are the optimal skills to take.

I want to have the capability to score when I'm on defence, or to throw a impossible pass when the thrower is going to be blitzed in the next turn. Just throw the thing down the field and force everybody to turn around and run back the other way as my catchers and blitzers rush after the ball.

Which most of the time will see you losing possession - and increasing your opponents chance to score. If you opponents get caught out by this more than once I'd be surprised.

Remember that you can throw a Long Bomb to an empty square anyway - and that's half the length of the pitch.

[Toby]

Long Bomb fumbles especially under pressure.

Accurate is useless because a long bomb is totaly insufficient to pose a scoring threat on defence.

Block is unecessary because the guy is supposed to wait near the opposing teams end zone, way out of trouble.

[narkotic]

I have a Human Team with 2x Cathers having Diving Catch and 1x Thrower HMP.

Apart from being something uncommon, i use them as:

Last (or second last) turn scoring, especially if you managed to snatch the ball from the opponent near your own EZ.

To throw the ball away if your thrower is desperetaly surrounded by opponents (which never should happen btw.). You usually don't fumble regradless of distance or TZ and it can't be intercepted.

Diving catch is good for itself bc. you may move the player ignoring TZs EVEN when you can not reach the ball.

[Toby]

do you play Java Bowl?
can only the designated receiver use diving catch or all players on the pitch with diving catch skill?

[narkotic]

do you play Java Bowl?
can only the designated receiver use diving catch or all players on the pitch with diving catch skill?

No, just non-virtual BB (costs me enough time)

Just the receiver originaly passed to (but he has not to move towards the ball, you can he move in any direction you like).

[slup]

Please remember that catching a HMP is like catching an inaccurate pass so you do not get the +1 bonus.
This makes catching the ball with a human catcher 3/4 = 75% and not 8/9 = 89%

To sum up
The chance for the ball to land in a square you can dive to is 47% (240/512). In adition you may make a diving tackle even if the ball is more than one square away. And there are 168 out of 512 ways to sqatter in which the ball lands 2 squares away. 1/8 of these the ball will bounce back to the intended receiver (if you moved next to the ball) giving an aditional 4 % (168/512/8) for a total 51 % that the receiver will end up in the same square with the ball if the pass is not fumbled (1/36 for a human thrower) and 49,5 % when taking fumble into account.

Now compare to taking accurate for the human thrower and making a long bomb.
If you only rerolls if you fumble (relying on diving catch) you get the ball away on 8/9. Of these half are accurate and half are inaccurate.
The total is that the receiver ends up trying to catch the ball in 67 % (4/9 + 4/9*51%) of the intended passes. In addition some of these benefits from accurate giving +1 to catch and a possible completions to the thrower.

Conclusion: HMP is when you just want to get the ball out of enemy reach and downfield. You do not fumble very often.
Long bomb when you need to catch the ball and need the SPP. But count in a fumble.
First skill should be accurate for further development of the thrower.

[Jerhod]

I plan to pick Diving Catch and Hail Marry as the 2 very first skills on my Human Team. Can someone explain me the 44% math thing once again?

There are 8x8x8 = 512 total possible dice rolls.

If the first roll is diagonal, there are two possible ways to get back to the intended square. If you scatter to a rectilinearly adjacent square there are four ways to get to the center. Thus, there are 4x2+4x4=24 ways to get back to the center.

If your first scatter is diagonal from the intended square, there are 1+2+3+4+8+4+3+2 = 27 ways of getting it exactly one square of the intended square. The best way to count this is by looking at the second scatter and counting the number of ways from the second scatter to get into the one-square away zone. Since there are eight second scatters there are eight numbers you should generate from this. Since there are four diagonals there are 4x27=108 ways to get it exactly one square away.

If your first scatter is rectilinearly adjacent to the intended square, there are 3+2+2+4+8+4+2+2 = 27 ways of getting it exactly one square of the intended square. Since there are four rectilinearly adjacent squares there are (again) 4x27=108 ways to get it exactly on square away.

Overall, there are 24+108+108=240 ways of getting it within one square. 240/512.

For what it's worth I'm a math teacher.

Best,
-Jerhod-

[DoubleSkulls]

Block is unecessary because the guy is supposed to wait near the opposing teams end zone, way out of trouble.

Your catcher ought to be ~6 squares into your opponents half - from there he can take the catch, move/dodge around the opposition and score. Then you don't need to make stupidly long passes for the play to work.

Also don't underestimate the pass/hand off which effectively gives an extra ~8 squares to the move.