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Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:51 am
by Rolex
Italy is the only nation of the "Big 4" with a big rise in games from 2013 to 2014.

It must be because of the new awesome NTO! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:18 am
by lunchmoney
2013 saw 16,620 matches across 253 tournaments.
2014 saw 16,360 matches across 247 tournaments.

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:23 am
by mubo
Any chance of a plain csv mike? Libre office seems to corrupt some of the more "European" characters.... Choice of delimiter might be important, as commas, periods, and tabs all exist in the file!

Also, people who have "#" in their NAF id are irritating!

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:23 am
by mubo
And thanks! Looks neat

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:54 am
by Pipey
This is really cool, thanks Mike.

Now someone very clever needs to do a full analysis... :D

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:15 am
by Chris
Fassbinder75 wrote:Slann are not very popular in France. Thin skin perhaps?
If they take less minotaurs than average as well then you know they just have an aversion to playing with their food :)

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:15 am
by sann0638
Pippy wrote:This is really cool, thanks Mike.

Now someone very clever needs to do a full analysis... :D
No probs, thanks to Val for extracting the data. The idea was to "crowd source" the analysis, as different people will have different takes on the data. Once all the facts and figures are out I'll do a newsletter article pulling it all together, and talk about it on the podcast.

Not sure if I can do a csv, will have a look later.

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:27 am
by lunchmoney
Can you update the first post with items everyone is posting? As more analysisis (correct spelling for plural of analysis?) are added it will help to see if what someone is looking for has already been found. Does that even make sense?

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:39 am
by Rolex
lunchmoney wrote:Can you update the first post with items everyone is posting? As more analysisis (correct spelling for plural of analysis?) are added it will help to see if what someone is looking for has already been found. Does that even make sense?
The plural of analysis is "analyses"... :wink:

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:47 pm
by lunchmoney
I was Home coach 69 times and Away only 21 times. Meaning I only played 90 matches in 2013/2014. Felt like more :)

The 4 Exiles tournaments make up 267 matches of 32,981 recorded games. Or 0.0081% :lol:

There are 3 matches that have a score line of -1/-1. How did that happen? (Two of them from Thrudball 2013 and one from the idea thieving Speedbowl Cup in Australia. I'm slightly concerned over the Thrudball entries as I was the one who recorded results on the day......I pretty sure I didnt put in a -1 score line.... )

There were 651 Nil - Nil results.

The biggest score difference happened just once; 9-0, Necro vs Chaos.
Plus four 8-0 results (WE vs Gobs, WE vs Ogres, Ska vs Ogres and Undead vs Pact) and two 8-1 (Elves vs Orges and Ska vs WE).

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:27 pm
by Sandwich
A chart of wins/draws/losses for each race.
I like pretty colours...
(I'd upload these somewhere, rather than attaching them, but I'm at work so I can't...)

NB: the races are ordered alphabetically, but somewhere in the google-drive-to-PNG conversion it has lost half the column labels... I'm sure you can guess them though.

Interesting* facts:
* More games were won with Orcs, than played with 12 of the other races... ditto undead.
* More games were lost with Orcs, than played with 13 of the other races :P
* Goblins were the most played stunty team (of course, they're most fun :smoking:) though halflings had a much better win percentage (ogres bottom of both categories)
* Underworld were least played by 12 games (2 tournament appearances I'd guess?) from vampires, with nurgle not much higher.

* May not actually be that interesting...

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:34 pm
by Sandwich
A chart of win percentage for each race; treating a draw as half-a-win - so the ratio calculation is (wins + 0.5 * draws) / total games

NB: again, the races are ordered alphabetically
NB (2): the vertical scale on this looks a bit rubbish... may try to fix it later.

Interesting* facts:
* Elves have the 6th best win percentage over the last 2 years. No wonder they call them pros... ;-)
* Both vampires and underworld come in above chaos
* Slann do better than orcs and humans! Take that, box set! *starts a petition to get a new BB box out with slann included...*

* May not actually be that interesting...

For reference, these are the (ordered) percentages... can't be bothered to format them.
Wood Elves 56.26%
Undead 55.64%
Dark Elves 54.80%
Lizardmen 54.32%
Amazons 53.21%
Elves 52.58%
Norse 52.55%
Dwarves 51.63%
Chaos Dwarves 51.36%
Necromantic 51.14%
Skaven 50.61%
High Elves 49.37%
Slann 49.16%
Orc 48.67%
Humans 48.51%
Khemri 46.88%
Chaos Pact 46.16%
Nurgle's Rotters 45.81%
Vampires 45.58%
Underworld 44.67%
Chaos 44.13%
Halflings 36.04%
Goblins 33.49%
Ogres 32.21%

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:40 pm
by Sandwich
Last from me for now... touchdowns per game, for each race.

No real surprises with these data...

* The overall average is 1.261, i.e. the average score for a team is 1.261.
* Space-frogs score more than dark elves
* Orcs offence seems to be tricky (I can believe it) as they rank 18th overall...

For reference, the numbers (formatting schmormatting)

Wood Elves 1.862
Skaven 1.676
Elves 1.661
High Elves 1.588
Slann 1.560
Dark Elves 1.477
Lizardmen 1.356
Humans 1.244
Undead 1.229
Norse 1.225
Amazons 1.222
Vampires 1.219
Necromantic 1.205
Underworld 1.198
Chaos Pact 1.073
Dwarves 1.072
Chaos Dwarves 1.069
Orc 1.042
Chaos 0.996
Halflings 0.994
Khemri 0.938
Goblins 0.920
Nurgle's Rotters 0.904
Ogres 0.796

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 2:09 pm
by sann0638
mubo wrote:Any chance of a plain csv mike? Libre office seems to corrupt some of the more "European" characters.... Choice of delimiter might be important, as commas, periods, and tabs all exist in the file!

Also, people who have "#" in their NAF id are irritating!
I've done a csv without tournament name, city and NAF name, so all the country/race analysis can be done without worrying about weird characters. I removed the apostrophe from Nurgle's Rotters too! http://www.thenaf.net/wp-content/upload ... educed.csv

Re: NAF Data for Number-Crunchers

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 6:26 pm
by GalakStarscraper
Sandwich ... thanks for that summary by race.

That chart makes me pretty happy. I will readily admit that there are still things in the rules that could be tweaked. But in terms of our work to hit the Tiers ... it is really good to see that 20 of the 24 teams land in the Tiers that we wanted them to and the 4 that do not JUST miss them but not by much (1.26%, 0.58%, 0.87% and 1.04%)

Wood Elf is over 55%
Vampire is over 45%
Chaos is under 45%
Halfling is over 35%

Otherwise the other 20 are in their Tiers. Just having a happy developer moment seeing that.