dode74 wrote:Wulfyn used k-means analysis on NAF 2012/13 data to come up with the following tiers:
T1 (55.26) : Wood Elves, Undead, Dark Elves, Lizardmen
T2 (51.87) : Amazons, Elves, Norse, Dwarves, Chaos Dwarves, Necromantic, Skaven
T3 (48.93) : High Elves, Slann, Orc, Humans
T4 (45.54) : Khemri, Chaos Pact, Nurgle, Vampires, Underworld, Chaos
T5 (33.91) : Halflings, Goblins, Ogres
Which is the problem with lies, damn lies and statistics.
The numbers for Necromantic (and possibly Elves) are skewed by the fact that they are always the best team in tier 2 and so get bonus skills on tier 1 races. As a consequence, people usually only take them (or take them more often) at tournaments where they get a leg up.
The numbers for Orcs and Humans have always been considered skewed because they are "out of the box" teams and so are considered vanilla and more likely to be taken by rookies, nosediving the average. Orcs in particular are so, so, so clearly a better team than Elves or Necros in the hands of a good coach.
Dark Elves is another interesting one. IMO they are one of the best teams, and the numbers support this. However, this comes with two large caveats. One, they are an extremely difficult team to play well, but are a team with one of the highest ceilings for getting juice from your decision making. Even some of the best coaches in the world struggle with them at first.* Rookie coaches will often try them once and do horribly. As such, Dark Elves are most often used by good coaches and so I would guess their data contains the fewest games by rookies dragging the average down.
Two, they are only any good in tournaments with a medium to high number of front loaded skills. In tournaments with few skills or one skill per game, they are extremely average, probably worse than Humans. As such, few people take them in tournaments that don't suit them. Running a tournament with these tiers would disadvantage DEs and probably make them unplayable. For example, DEs vs Orcs is a really tough game; fair but if it favours anyone it is the Orcs. There is no way DEs should be playing that match up 2-3 skills down.
*Contrast this with say Undead. They are definitely in the top tier, but I would suggest their numbers are high both because they are good but also because they are forgiving. You can just beat people up with Mummies and get away with a lot of things, so even rookie coaches can win plenty of games with them.
*This post may have been made without the use of a hat.